A hot chocolate day

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Main Threats

No major threats in the near term.

Summary

Morning rain should tend to become lighter and more scattered as we come to the afternoon and evening hours. It’s a cold, raw day, with highs struggling to reach the 50-degree mark. The north breezes will only make it feel colder. I would definitely call this a hot chocolate day.

Rain showers should stay on the isolated to scattered side on Saturday. Models are beginning to trend drier for Sunday, though we should still see some scattered showers. I basically foresee a mostly cloudy weekend ahead with some showers to dodge, but nothing too widespread or heavy.

Skies look to remain cloudy on Monday. The weather improves for Tuesday, before our next big storm system moves in on Wednesday. Models are hinting at the possibility of strong storm with that system, so I’ll be keeping an eye on that.

Tropics

We will likely see the development of Oscar either today or sometime this weekend out in the Atlantic. While the system is expected to track westward for a few days, I find it very hard to believe he will ever have a chance of making it to the US mainland with so many cold fronts making their way across the country. These fronts will likely sweep Oscar out to sea long before he gets a chance to threaten the mainland.

Almanac (past 24 hours)

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This morning’s low temperature was 46.3 at 12:23 a.m.

Records

The earliest snowfall ever recorded in New York City fell on this date in 1859. Up to four inches of snow blanketed the city.

The earliest sub-zero temperature on record for Bismarck, North Dakota occurred on this date in 1919. The -10-degree temperature reading is also a record for the month of October for that city.

On this day in 1926 snow flurries were reported as far south as South Carolina. That’s quite impressive for the last week of October!

News

I mentioned in the Summary section above that the middle of next week may feature a rather impressive storm system. I noticed this morning that the Climate Prediction Center has on the eastern edge of a heavy rain threat for that time period. Halloween may be a rather messy forecast. With long-range models, it’s almost impossible to discern between heavy rain events or severe weather events, especially this time of year. This could easily go either way. I’ll be watching it! And, of course, we are several days away from this and anything can change. Just consider this a “heads up”.

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I also noticed that the outlook for the first week or so of November is looking warm and wet. The temperature outlook is on the left, while the precip outlook is on the right. This goes from November 2-9.

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You all have a great day and a great weekend!

 

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