Some nice sunshine before the rainstorms

Well, the skies surprised us today with more sunshine than what was expected! We’ll take it, right? I sure hope you’re doing your best to soak up these rays because we’ll be hard-pressed to see this much sun again until maybe this time next week. I guess sunny Monday’s are better than rainy Monday’s…..

Below is the current satellite. We have a strip of clearer skies that runs from Sparta to Oneida. Folks north and south of this area are in the clouds this afternoon. You can see those clouds right now to our north and south if you look out the window.

sat_conuse_halfkm_color_20190218_1802

I’ve had a LOT of people ask me why there are so many rain total forecasts this week and each one is drastically different from another. I think the greatest source of confusion are the graphics floating around of 7-10 inches of rain. That is NOT what we will get Tuesday night and Wednesday. Those big totals, if you read the title of those graphics, are the total for the next 7 days of rainfall. Yes, that is still a LOT of rain but it sure beats getting that in one day!

Also, a lot of those bigger totals are the “worse case scenario.” Many of us will likely not see that much rain. However, I think nearly all of us will see 2-3 inches of rain Tuesday night and Wednesday. Then, we’ll see another round of 2-3 inch rainfall for Friday night and Saturday. That alone would add up to 4-6 inches of rain for the plateau. That’s what we can all expect to see. There will likely be places that get more than that.

We will see rain Thursday but I don’t think it will add up to more than half an inch or so.

Any of these rain total are subject to change, so stay tuned.

Two things worry me most. The first is the line of heavy rain that will come through here Wednesday afternoon. Flash flooding could become a serious threat around the plateau at that time. Please keep this in mind. Right now, model data suggest that line will come across the plateau around 3:00 p.m. Wednesday. Up until then, we should just see general flooding from steady rainfall. It’s these lines of heavy rain that can really wreck havoc with dangerous flash flooding. I hope the timing changes with this. The middle of the afternoon is a terrible time for something like that to come in on us.

The second thing that worries me is the next batch of rainfall for Friday night and Saturday. Where on earth will all that water go? Plus, we have the threat of strong to severe storms hanging over our heads for that time frame too. The last thing we need is a squall line of high wind coming through with these saturated soils. I’m watching this VERY closely.

But, for now let’s enjoy this calm before the rainstorms!

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