Month: July 2019

A stationary front draped across our area this morning is already setting off some showers and t-storms. Keep an eye on the sky if you have outdoor plans today. As always, watch out for that lightning! These storms will also be capable of very heavy downpours.

The Weather Prediction Center just put this hydrologic outlook out that I thought you all might find interesting. Notice that the heavy rain threat doesn’t completely miss us here on the plateau with Barry. Thankfully, the latest track has Barry tracking over Little Rock, Arkansas, which is awfully far west of us. Unfortunately, Barry is a very large storm and his influence will reach far and wide.

With that center so far to our west, however, we won’t have near the flood concerns that West TN has. They are already under flood watches.  I think many of us will see at least a total of a couple inches of rain by Tuesday, but it depends on how many of these tropical downpours you get at your house. These downpours can put down a LOT of rain in a short period of time.

The one thing you’ll notice most is the enormous amount of warm, humid Gulf air Barry will displace toward our region. Expect very muggy conditions Sunday through at least Wednesday. Those conditions alone will help set off scattered showers and t-storms.

I’ll be keeping an eye on things! You all have a great Saturday!

Just as Barry is moving onshore, the Hurricane Hunters found sustained winds of 75 mph, making Barry a hurricane. The storm is moving at a snail’s pace of 6 mph. Throughout the day, the storm will be moving north across Louisiana, bringing very gusty winds and torrential rainfall. Some locations will pick up over two feet of rain.

So far, New Orleans is doing alright. They have a long road ahead of them but the heaviest rain bands are actually to their east this morning, over the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama.

Some good news came last night, when the forecast crest of the Mississippi River was dropped from 20 feet to 17 feet. The flood walls around New Orleans are 20 feet tall.

Let’s hope for more good news but I sure hope they don’t let their guard down.  All this water will be coming down the Mississippi River as this storm moves north.

Weather Headlines

–Barry makes landfall in Louisiana

–Barry will bring an increased chance for showers and storms over the next several days

Main threats

No significant threats in sight, though any t-storm that develops will be capable of producing torrential rainfall and frequent lightning.

Summary

Look for scattered showers and storms today, mainly in the afternoon and evening. These showers and storms are in response to our “cold” front lifting back north. This should be enough to set off scattered showers and storms, especially this afternoon.

The influences of Barry will begin arriving tomorrow. That will increase our rain and storm chances over the next several days. The biggest influence he will have is pulling up  a ton of warm, humid air from the Gulf. That will act as a fuel source for showers and storms.

So, for Sunday through Wednesday the forecast stays pretty much the same. We’ll have a 40-50% chance for a shower or storm, mainly in the afternoons and evenings. You may notice the clouds looking especially tropical/pretty, as Barry pulls up an oceanic airmass up our way.

Any storm that develops will be capable of producing tropical downpours, which can put down a lot of rain in a short period of time. Just be aware of that.

WeatherTAP WeatherFACT

Tropical systems are named when their maximum sustained winds reach 39 mph. That list of names is recycled every six years. If a storm is particularly damaging, such as Katrina, that storm’s name is retired from the list and replaced by a new name.

The naming of hurricanes came about because it was easier to convey the information about the storms using a name, rather than latitude and longitude plots. The very first storm ever named was named Maria, after the heroine in the novel “Storm” by George Rippey Stewart.

Only female names were used from 1953 to 1979. Now, the names are alternated by gender for every other name.

Records

On this day in 2004 a squall line, better known as a derecho, howled through Middle TN. The Nashville airport reported a wind speed of 67 mph. Wind damage was reported in every single Middle Tennessee county from this event.

On this day in 1977 lightning struck a key electrical transmission line in Westchester County, New York. The county is located in southeastern New York state. The lightning strike did so much damage it plunged all of New York City into darkness.

Almanac

Yesterday’s record high: 97 (1980)

Yesterday’s record low: 51 (1975)

Today’s record high: 97 (1954)

Today’s record low: 54 (1959)

Today’s sunset: 7:57

Tomorrow sunrise: 5:34

Today’s day length: 14 hrs 23 mins 29 secs

Tomorrow’s day length: 14 hrs 22 mins 24 secs

One year ago today

The high was 86 and the low was 64. No rain fell.

News

Barry will be making landfall later today. He is slowly making his way toward shore this morning. I’ll let you know when he’s come ashore. Winds, as of this morning, have increased to 70 mph.

The latest update from the National Hurricane Center holds Barry at 65 mph. Tropical systems tend to strengthen at night, and that’s just what Barry is expected to do. I expect him to reach hurricane status sometime within the next 12 hours (74 mph).

Barry is taking his sweet time, as so many tropical systems do. This is allowing the winds to push even more water onshore. Just before it got dark, tons of video were coming in of flooded coastal roads. It’s too late for those residents to evacuate if they hadn’t already done so. Power outages are already occurring, as well.

The Mississippi River is expected to crest late tonight at 18-19 feet. That is more than 10 feet above flood stage and that’s without the full effects of Barry’s rainfall, which could top two feet in some locations. The National Guard has been deployed to New Orleans with buses to evacuate if it become necessary during the storm. During the storm? I shake my head. I’m not sure that’s even possible. Let’s just hope the 18-20 foot flood walls hold around New Orleans. Otherwise, we’ll see similar images to what we saw 14 years ago with Katrina. There are reports that the walls weren’t built to code after Katrina to save money. There are also reports that maintenance on those walls has been sub-par.

If you’d like to receive text updates on what’s going on in the city you can text the word Barry to 888-777. I signed up.

Northerly shear has pushed most of the storm to the south side of the main circulation. This doesn’t mean the winds aren’t 65 mph at the center, it just means the main rainfall may not be in that same area.

Barry has been an odd storm thus far. Some of you have seen the unusual satellite imagery I shared earlier today, of swirls in the clouds on the north side of the circulation. Odd, indeed.

Unfortunately, too much emphasis is being placed on the wind. It’s not the wind, it’s the water that kills and destroys so much. There’s a lot to worry about tonight and I wouldn’t trade places with Louisianians in the path of Barry, who opted to stay and ride out the floods. I hope they don’t regret that decision.

Say an extra prayer tonight for Louisiana and New Orleans. They’re going to need it.