Baldwin’s Sunday Story Wx Blog for May 31st

Weekend Abbreviated Edition

Forecast at a Glance (New!)

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Headlines

Very pleasant weather

Warmer and more humid weather by midweek

Storm chances increase by Thursday

Main threats

Any storm that develops Wednesday night through Saturday will have the potential to be strong, with gusty winds, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, and heavy rainfall. I’ll keep an eye on it!

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

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Daily Forecast

Today: Partly cloudy skies and quite pleasant. Humidity levels will be very low.

Monday – Tuesday: Humidity remains low but will be getting just a bit higher each day. Never the less, pleasant weather continues.

Wednesday: Humidity levels will be noticeably higher. Skies will be partly cloudy, with just a slight chance for an afternoon/evening shr or storm. Most of us will stay warm, humid, and dry.

Thursday – Friday: Scattered showers and storms are possible, especially in the afternoons/evenings.

Saturday: Continued warmer and more humid, along with a continued chance for mainly afternoon/evening shrs/storms.

Hay Weather Forecast

Almanac

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Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 111 at Phoenix, Arizona

Low: 30 at Hibbing and Silver Bay, Minnesota

Difference of: Difference of 81 degrees

Today’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

No significant hazardous weather is expected today.

SundayThreat

Tomorrow’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Another quite day, with just a few areas of unsettled weather producing generally light precip.

SundayThreat2

Tuesday’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

A more active pattern begins to evolve. Severe storms will be possible across portions of the Midwest. It’s these storm complexes that I’ll be tracking closely the end of this week, as northwest flow aloft could easily steer some of these complexes in our direction.

SundayThreat3

Tropics

We have a new area of concern that could become a problem. The system originated in the Pacific but energy from the system is going to transfer into the Bay of Campeche. Development into a tropical system now looks likely. Whether or not it heads north to the Gulf Coast remains to be seen. The latest models show high pressure steering this system into Texas this week. I’ll keep you all posted!

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Launch Update

The crew of DEMO-2 had a good night’s sleep and they are preparing to dock with the International Space Station at about 9:30 am this Sunday morning!

Keep up with the latest on their mission at https://www.nasa.gov/content/live-launch-america-nasas-spacex-demo-2-mission-to-the-international-space-station

Sunday Story

The 2020 Hurricane Season

The first named storm of the 2020 hurricane season formed earlier this month, even though the season does not officially begin until June 1st. According to NOAA, we can expect an active season ahead.

In order for hurricanes to develop, the ocean temperature must be at least 80 degrees. Waters that warm evaporate enough water to provide fuel for the hurricane to survive. Just as our storms here in Tennessee need warm, humid conditions to thrive, so to do tropical systems.

Hurricanes also need weak winds throughout the atmosphere. Weak winds allow the storms to organize around the eye, causing the storm to strengthen. 

According to NOAA, ocean temperatures are already warm enough to support a hurricane. Ocean waters continue to warm earlier each year, leading to a greater chance for tropical activity earlier in the season.

In addition, a La Nina pattern will be developing this summer. This type of pattern tends to favor weak atmospheric winds in the tropics, creating favorable conditions for the storms to form. 

NOAA is excited about new technology they will be using this season. Upgrades to several models should improve forecasting. The use of drones will be a new tool to investigate storm environments over the oceans.

The remnants of hurricanes can produce severe weather on the plateau. Flooding rains and gusty winds are common with those remnants, but we can also get tornadoes from these systems. 

The greatest danger to life and property from hurricanes is flooding, even though we still only rate them by wind speed. 

NOAA predicts 6-10 hurricanes this season, with at least half of those being major storms. The big question is will any of them make landfall? It only takes one land-falling storm to make for a bad hurricane season. Let’s hope they all stay at sea!

You all have a great Sunday!

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