Baldwin’s Tuesday Wx Blog for June 2

Video “Forecast at a Glance” is unavailable today.

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Headlines

Heat and humidity begin to increase today

Showers and storms return late week

Watching the tropics

Main threats

The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in the marginal risk for severe storms for Thursday. The main threat is from thunderstorm complexes that may drop in from the north, with damaging straight-line winds being the primary threat.

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Baldwin’s Severe Wx Concern

Severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday or Wednesday, as our atmosphere is too stable. That atmosphere will destabilize enough to support some strong to severe storms for Thursday. I’ll keep an eye on things!

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Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

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Daily Forecast

Today: Partly cloudy skies and warmer.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy skies, with a very slight chance for an afternoon/early evening storm.

Thursday – Friday: Scattered showers and storms, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Noticeably more humid. Some storms could be severe with damaging winds.

Saturday – Saturday: A continued chance for mainly summer-like afternoon/evening showers/storms.

Monday: Warm and humid, with a slight chance for a t-storm.

Hay Weather Forecast

Still looking great! Get as much as you can done today, as today is the last day this week with 0% rain chances. Most of us will stay dry Wednesday but that higher humidity will cause slow drying of the cut hay. Showers and storms will likely complicate hay cutting the end of this week, if not make it impossible.

Tropical moisture from our system in the Gulf may bring more rain next week, but that is uncertain at this time.

Almanac

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Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 108 at Eloy, Arizona

Low: 19 at Mount Washington, New Hampshire

Difference of: 89 degrees

Today’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Severe weather will threaten parts of the Upper Midwest, from Nebraska to Michigan. All hazards are possible. The threat for hail larger than 2″ in diameter is very possible.

TuesdayThreat

Tomorrow’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

The severe threat shifts south a bit tomorrow. There will also be a threat across the plains, in a corridor across northeast Colorado, western Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas. The threat for tornadoes is greatest from Ohio to the East Coast of the yellow-shaded region. The threat for very large hail will be greatest across northeast Colorado and western Kansas.

TuesdayThreat2

Thursday’s 

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

The threat for severe storms will be greatest across parts of the central plains. Storm complexes there could ride along and south of that cold front you see across the eastern US, which may increase severe storm chances farther east and southeast of the currently highlighted area. I’ll keep an eye on that for us!

TuesdayThreat3

Tropics

Tropical Depression #3 is expected to become Tropical Storm Cristobal today. The storm is then expected to slowly track north through the Gulf. This one will have to be watched very closely for folks along the northern Gulf Coast for early next week.

TuesdayTropics

Records

On this day in 1998 severe thunderstorms produced softball-sized hail across parts of Overton County. This is the largest hail size ever officially recorded in Middle Tennessee (See trivia section below for more info).

Weather Trivia 

Q: As mentioned in the records above, softball-sized hail is the largest hail ever officially recorded in Tennessee. How many times has hail that size fallen in Tennessee?

a. just this once   b. twice   c. three times   d. four times

(Answer at the end of the blog!)

Long Range Outlook 

Very warm temps and average to slightly above average rainfall are expected in the long-range outlooks for June 7-11.

Temperature

TuesdayTemp

Precipitation 

TuesdayRain

7-Day Projected Precip Totals

The anticipated tropical moisture from what will likely be Tropical Storm Cristobal shows up well in the Gulf and across Florida. The higher precip totals on the plateau that you see are mainly from topographical influences on afternoon/evening summer-like storms.

TuesdayQPF

NASA News

At 8:20 this morning the crew of the International Space Station rang the bell for the beginning of trading on the New York Stock Exchange. What a way to start a day of trading!

blog_exp63_crew

Baldwin’s View-of-the-Day

Does this picture look familiar? It sure does fool a lot of people every year! It’s used for nearly every major weather event by someone trying to dupe us. I’ve seen this pic labeled “Katrina” and “Sandy” and so on. I found this Tweet about this picture amusing…. “16 years ago this evening (May 28) Katrina formed west of Sioux City. She traveled the world for a year, stopping by Texas, Oklahoma, Israel…yes…etc. Finally visited New Orleans in 2005. NYC 2012. Like the red spot on Jupiter more or less.” The picture has certainly made its rounds on social media and is probably the most abused weather picture out there! 🙂

EZJBbUXU0AA02oW

Weather News

I had planned to do a video last night explaining what this hurricane season could mean for our area, but my grandmother became very sick, very quickly and we spent the evening with her in the emergency room. I’ll have that video for you today sometime, hopefully. She’s doing better but we still need to see other doctors.

Answer to Trivia Question

A: (c) Hail the size of softballs (4″ diameter) has fallen three times in Middle Tennessee. The first time was in Davidson County (1985), then Overton County (1998), and in the following year in Giles County (1999).

You all have a great day!

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