At a Glance

48-Hour Weather

Threats

The threats facing us this week include a locally damaging wind gust with any storm that develops, as well as cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flash flooding.

Baldwin’s Severe Weather Concern

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Daily Forecast

Today: Showers and storms likely, especially in the afternoon/evening. Otherwise mostly cloudy.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and storms, especially in the afternoon/evening hours.

Wednesday – Friday: A chance for showers and storms, mainly in the afternoon/evening. Otherwise, partly cloudy, warm and humid. A cold front on Friday should bring us better weather for the weekend.

Saturday – Sunday: Partly cloudy and pleasant. Just a slight chance for an afternoon/evening shower or storm on Sunday.

Baldwin’s Hay Day Forecast

This week continues to look very unsettled, with better weather expected behind a cold front that will pass through on Friday. Next week may hold our first shot of fall-like temperatures.

Almanac

Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 113 at Death Valley, California

Low: 28 at Sunriver, Oregon & Peter Sinks, Utah & Stanley, Idaho

Tropics

The two areas of greatest concern are no threat to the US. The one off the East Coast is moving out to sea, while the one in the Caribbean is moving into Central America. The other two areas of concern out in the Atlantic will need to be watched closely, as they track across the ocean this week.

Today’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Heavy rainfall threatens parts of western North Carolina and western Virginia. Another area of both heavy rainfall and severe weather threatens parts of the southern plains and Midsouth. A wildfire danger continues for parts of Nevada and Utah, while wintry precip threatens parts of Idaho, southern Montana, and western Wyoming.

Tomorrow’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

The main threat tomorrow is that extensive area of heavy rainfall across the southern plains. That stretches into parts of the Lower Mississippi River Valley.

Wednesday’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

And that heavy rainfall threat remains on Wednesday, even stretching eastward a bit more. A wildfire danger develops across parts of eastern Montana and the western portions of the Dakotas.

On This Day

On this day in 1954 Hurricane Carol swept across eastern New England, killing sixty persons and causing 450 million dollars damage. It was the first of three hurricanes to affect New England that year. 

Long Range Outlook 

Look at all that cooler air coming down for this period of time! This is for the 5th through the 9th of September. Normal highs this time of year are in the lower 80s, with lows in the lower 60s, so anything below that is below normal. I’m anxious to see if future extended outlooks bring that cooler air on south. Rainfall looks to be about normal, to slightly above normal.

Temperature

Precipitation 

Weather Shot

Severe-warned storm north of Dalhart, Texas on Saturday. What an absolutely incredible shot! It looks like a spaceship. Photo by Jake Thompson (@ChaserJake94).

NASA Nerdology

Speeding race car drivers are in the hot seat in more ways than one. Temperatures inside a stock car’s cockpit can soar to an estimated sweltering 160 degrees Fahrenheit. That extreme heat comes through the engine firewall, transmission tunnel, and floor.

Based on materials used to protect the space shuttle from the temperatures experienced as the crafts slammed back into Earth’s atmosphere (and faced temperatures up to 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit), a company created blanket insulation kits to shield race car drivers from excessive heat exposure.

Another byproduct of racing is combustion fumes that can cause headaches, nausea, and dizziness. Racing engineers adapted a NASA space technology to create a filter that removes 99% of all airborne particles. The filter provides drivers with fresh, clean air.

You all have a great day!

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At a Glance

48-Hour Weather

Threats

Any storm that develops today, tonight, or tomorrow could contain very gusty winds (locally damaging?), heavy downpours of rain, and frequent lightning. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but any storm could become locally severe.

Storms Tuesday through Friday will become more isolated, but they could also be on the strong side.

Baldwin’s Severe Weather Concern

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Daily Forecast

Sunday – Monday: Rain and storms. Some of the storms could be strong. Heavy rainfall is possible.

Tuesday – Wednesday: Scattered showers and storms, especially in the afternoon/evening. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies.

Thursday: Warm and humid, with a chance for an afternoon/evening shower or storm.

Friday: Scattered showers and storms with a frontal passage, mainly in the afternoon/evening.

Saturday: Partly cloudy and pleasant.

Baldwin’s Hay Day Forecast

Those of you trying to cut some fall hay are going to have a tough time of it this week. Disturbances and frontal boundaries will spark off numerous showers and storms this week in our very humid airmass. A cold front will hopefully slide through Friday and hopefully give us a drier weekend. Unfortunately, extended outlooks show more wet weather, especially with the possibility of tropical storms, as the tropics become very active once again.

Almanac

Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 114 at Death Valley, Stovepipe Wells, and Ocotillo Wells, California

Low: 29 at Klamath Marsh, Oregon

Tropics

Now, we have FOUR areas to monitor. The National Hurricane Center is now most concerned about an area of low pressure moving off the Southeast Coast. It will likely become the next named storm, Nana, as it moves out to sea and away from the US. Three more areas are being watched for possible development this week across the southern Atlantic.

Today’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Heavy downpours could produce local flash flooding across parts of the Midsouth, including our area, for today. That threat is also found across parts of Arizona. Meanwhile, severe storms threaten eastern South Dakota and eastern Nebraska.

Tomorrow’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Heavy rainfall threatens Virginia and Maryland, as well as portions of the southern plains. That southern plains threat also comes with the risk for some severe storms. Farther west, where it’s much hotter and drier, a wildfire danger can be found across parts of Nevada and Utah.

Tuesday’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Unsettled weather continues across much of the country, with the heaviest rainfall falling across parts of the southern plains. Meanwhile, a tropical storm may be developing off the Carolina Coast.

On This Day

On this day in 2005 the remnants of Hurricane Katrina moved into Middle Tennessee. Nashville measures 1.97″ of rainfall. Clarksville records 2.07 inches, while Crossville receives 0.99 inches. Winds gust as high as 40 miles an hour at all three locations.

Sunday Story 

Cat 5

The most powerful hurricanes are given a category five ranking. Only four of these storms have ever made landfall in the US, since record-keeping began. Two of those storms hit in the month of August.

Hurricane Camille struck the Gulf Coast in August of 1969 with a ferocity unlike anything the Mississippi Gulf Coast had ever experienced. Entire coastal communities were swept clean away. Maximum sustained winds were nearly 200 mph at landfall!

Camille tracked north across Mississippi and West Tennessee, and then moved east across Kentucky and into the mountains of West Virginia. Flash flooding turned mountain streams into raging rivers. The storm killed 143 people on the Gulf Coast and another 153 people in flooding in West Virginia.

Camille reminded us that a hurricane’s effects can have far-reaching, devastating effects. More people were killed in West Virginia than were killed on the Gulf Coast. 

Another powerful August hurricane was Andrew in 1992. That storm devastated southern Florida, narrowly missing downtown Miami with its 160 mph winds. That storm strengthened slightly while it was inland, drawing energy from the hot and humid marshland. This is quite rare for tropical systems, as they normally weaken once they move inland. 

Andrew was the first named storm of that season and was the most powerful hurricane of that entire season. The rest of that season was quiet, but the devastation of Andrew was all it took to make that whole season a bad one to remember. It only takes one storm.

Andrew crossed southern Florida and ended up in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm eventually moved north into Tennessee, bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the plateau. 

We are right to worry about coastal communities during hurricane season, but we mustn’t forget the impacts that can be felt far inland, too.  

You all have a great day!

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WHAT: Strong, to locally severe, storms

WHEN: Storms should be moving across the plateau between 5:00-7:00 pm.

Thus far, storms have had a history of producing pea-sized hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) just issued a statement for our area, saying they do not plan to issue any severe weather watches for our area this evening. They do advise us to be a bit weather aware, as any storm that develops could be locally severe, with a damaging wind gust. Storms could also contain a lot of lightning and very heavy rainfall. Pictured below is the graphic with the discussion the SPC issued.

Radar shows a line of storms sagging southward at this hour (3:45 radar image). Occasionally, one or two of these become severe. Storms are moving at about 15-20 mph.

My level of concern is unchanged from the last update and is still on the low end of the scale.

And we remain the marginal risk for severe weather, issued by the SPC. This is the lowest of the severe weather risk categories.

So, just be a bit weather aware this evening. This is not a widespread severe weather event, by any means, but any storm that comes into your area could become locally severe, with a damaging wind gust. If you have plans to be outside this evening, just keep an eye to the sky and a look at the radar from time to time.

You all have a great evening!

WHAT: Strong, possibly severe storms

WHEN: 4:00 – 10:00 pm timeframe

MAIN THREAT: Damaging straight-line winds

I will be tracking a cluster of strong to severe storms today, as it makes its way across the Midsouth. The storms are currently in Arkansas and Missouri. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) just issued a discussion (circled red area) stating that a severe t-storm watch will be issued there soon. There are already several warnings.

Current radar shows the storms (circled) and I drew an arrow showing direction so movement. Radar compliments of RadarScope.

I’ll keep an eye on things. This currently does not appear to be a widespread severe weather threat for us, but it is worth keeping an eye on. I am concerned that it will be arriving after a day of building heat and humidity. That will certainly provide some added fuel. The SPC still maintains a low-end risk for us and highlights our area in the marginal risk for severe storms from this. I should note that the tornado threat is very low and isn’t event mentioned by the SPC.

My level of concern has increased just a bit from this morning. The storms coming in with so much heat and humidity around just increases my concern for a strong to severe storm. I’ll keep a close eye on things!