Baldwin’s Wednesday Wx Blog for Sept 16

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At a Glance

48-Hour Weather

Threats

Hazardous weather is not expected over the next seven days. Sally’s southward track will rob our atmosphere of any energy the cold front could have worked with on Thursday. We will likely not even hear so much as a rumble of thunder over the next seven days!

Baldwin’s Severe Weather Concern

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Daily Forecast

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy skies. Just a slight chance for a shower/sprinkles.

Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy, with a chance for showers. Many of us may stay dry. Sally will pull moisture from our atmosphere, stealing that moisture from our cold front.

Friday: Becoming partly cloudy. A nice day.

Saturday – Tuesday: Absolutely beautiful! Be sure and plan on getting outside!

Baldwin’s Hay Day Forecast

With the southward track of Sally, our rain chances continue to drop. Some of us will stay dry through this forecast period. But, with the chance for a shower being with us all day tomorrow, any outdoor plan will be a bit compromised. Sally will even rob our atmosphere of any moisture our cold front could have worked with, so rain chances may drop even more for tomorrow. After that front clears our area, we are in for a string of nice days that may carry us through all of next week!

Almanac

Yesterday’s National High and Low Temperature

High: 112° at Brawley, California

Low: 22° at Peter Sinks, Utah

Tropics

The rainfall forecast tells you all you need to know about the track of Sally. Notice it all stays south of our area. Some portions of the southeast are going to pick up phenomenal amounts of rainfall today and tomorrow. This rainfall forecast is in addition to the 1-2 feet some areas near the coast have already measured!

The tropics are still extremely active. That disturbance in the Gulf (orange X) is now free to strengthen, now that Sally is moving away. It should stay closer to Mexico but we’ll have to keep a bit of an eye on it in the coming days. Paulette continues to move out to sea. Teddy is expected to become a major hurricane (more on him below this graphic). Vicky is dissipating and the orange X below her is expected to become a named storm and will need to be watched closely. We have one name left before we start using the Greek alphabet.

The folks in Bermuda have got to look at this forecast and say, “Come on, now!” I’ve said it so many times….why does that little group of islands end up in the path of so many storms? It’s so weird.

Today’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

All eyes are on the landfall of Hurricane Sally along the northern Gulf Coast. That storm will bring severe weather and flooding rainfall to that area. Some of the flooding will be catastrophic.

Tomorrow’s Wx Hazards Across the Nation

Sally continues to bring heavy rainfall to parts of the Southeast, as she gradually weakens to a depression.

 On This Day

1928 – Hurricane San Felipe, a monster hurricane, which left 600 dead in Guadeloupe, and 300 dead in Puerto Rico, struck West Palm Beach FL causing enormous damage, and then headed for Lake Okeechobee. When the storm was over, the lake covered an area the size of the state of Delaware, and beneath its waters were 2000 victims. The only survivors were those who reached large hotels for safety, and a group of fifty people who got onto a raft to take their chances out in the middle of the lake!

Long Range Outlook 

Next week continues to look hot out west and cool in the east. Much of the country is looking very dry.

Temperature

Precipitation 

Weather Shot

When Sally makes landfall, it will be 8th continental US (CONUS) named storm to make landfall this year. This will be the most CONUS named storm landfalls on record through September 16 The prior record was 7 named storm landfalls set in 1916. (Philip Klotzback @philklotzbach).

Pictured below is a radar image of Sally at 9:20 am. I circled Mobile, Alabama for reference. The storm is currently making landfall just southeast of Mobile.

NASA Nerdology

A NASA Armstrong research aircraft is flying a science campaign over burn areas from the California wildfires. Aboard is a NASA Joint Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)-developed radar instrument, which helps identify areas most affected & those at risk of landslides and debris flows. For more info, please see https://go.nasa.gov/2FvJA12

You all have a great day!

Be sure to “Follow” the blog and get updates emailed straight to your inbox! Just find that “Follow” button in the lower right corner of  your screen. Thank you!

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