Once again, we find ourselves concerned about the possibility for severe storms. I do ask that you see last night’s blog for some safety tips that are still relevant for this posting. That post can be found at https://meteorologistmark.com/2021/03/22/update-on-thursdays-storm-potential/, if you haven’t already read it.
Today’s guidance continues to paint a concerning picture for our area for Thursday. Yes, the threat is greatest across the Deep South. But, once again, we have to wonder how much/if any of that will make its way up here? Right now, the data shows a tornado outbreak for Mississippi and Alabama, possibly even into the southern areas of Middle Tennessee. That certainly bears watching. There certainly seems to be a better chance for that with this severe weather outbreak than there was with the last. You can see that the Storm Prediction Center’s thoughts are leaning that way when you see the convective outlook for Thursday. For last week’s event, we were never higher than the marginal risk.
Once thing I’ve noticed is that guidance also strongly suggest a lot of rain. In fact, we could see a few inches of rainfall. As we all know, rain can really help stabilize an otherwise very volatile atmosphere. We saw that last week and those clouds and showers really helped us out. Lots of wind shear (change in wind speed and direction the higher you go into the atmosphere) can bring heavy rain or severe storms. Sometimes, the event is unfolding before we know which will dominate.
Also, if you’ll recall, the storms down south really drained our atmosphere of energy last week. Could that happen this week too? Absolutely.
So, it certainly continues to bear watching and I’ll be watching those new outlooks coming out just after midnight. Hey, the weather never sleeps, so how can I? haha
One thing I’ve seen in the past is that sometimes the atmosphere is too unstable. That’s right, TOO unstable. Sometimes there’s just so many ingredients in place that they all pop together at once and lead to a big ole mess of rain and storms. Each storm interferes with the other and none are able to pack much of a punch. That’s possible this Thursday, as well, especially across the Deep South.
So, my concern remains unchanged, due to the amount of uncertainty that lingers tonight. Just review that severe weather plan and make note of Thursday’s plans. I’ve cancelled everything I had to do that day and I’ll be right here monitoring the weather very closely. I hope all I see is rain and some thundershowers on our radar. If I see something worse, I’ll be here to track it.
You all take care. I’ll have a full blog update in the morning. Remember, check last evening’s update for some tips on what you may need to get or buy. Otherwise, here’s the checklist that you need to familiarize yourself with.
See you in the morning!