Summary

The weather balloon launch at Nashville this evening shows a rather stable atmosphere in place across much of the region. That stability should keep storms below severe limits overnight. You could certainly hear some rumbles of thunder but nothing of consequence is expected. The Storm Prediction Center also agrees with this assessment. In fact, you have to go all the way back to Arkansas to see a heightened threat for severe weather overnight.

A lull in storm activity is expected on Tuesday. That should allow temps to climb into the low to mid 70s.

By Tuesday night, another batch of storms may move in. The good news is that models have consistently shown these storms staying below severe limits. Again, the Storm Prediction Center agrees with this, though the marginal risk for severe storms does stretch across Kentucky. I’ll update on this again tomorrow, but I don’t expect there to be much to concern ourselves with.

Storms Wednesday night might have some kick to them. A substantial severe weather risk will exist from Mississippi to West TN and into western Kentucky. As that activity works eastward it will weaken. We’ll just have to see how weak it becomes before it reaches the plateau. The Storm Prediction Center has our area outlined in the slight risk for severe weather for Wednesday night (9:00 p.m – 3:00 a.m.).

Right now, I think that by Wednesday afternoon we’ll see storms organizing across Missouri and Arkansas. We’ll then be tracking those as they move east. Again, those will weaken as they approach our area. Let’s hope it’s just a line of some gusty winds and rain when it gets here.

I’ve modified my severe weather outlook a bit. I think we’re fine tonight and tomorrow. We’ll need to focus most on Wednesday night. I’ll keep an eye on that.

Radar Simulation

This radar simulation runs from 9:00 pm tonight to 1:00 pm Tuesday. Notice that storms during this time period are unorganized and should be below severe limits in our area.

Conclusion

Most of our focus needs to be on Wednesday night. I’ll monitor that closely over the next 48 hours.

For those who might be interested, there are a few spots left in my MM kids class at TCAT Thursday evening. Having that class the night before Good Friday has cut attendance a bit. So, if your child would like to learn about lightning now is a good chance to do that! This is one of my favorite topics to teach. Class is free and starts at 4:30. Those classes last about an hour. Registration can be found at  https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfN9hkFKnAvnrCYg1ewfFsjuJEXyRR8fHDyBVX95V_ey7OZDg/viewform.

You all take care! I’ll have a full update in the morning.