Thursday, 3:00 Special Weather Update, December 22, 2022
Next update planned for Thursday at 7:00 pm, or as needed
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Headline
Tracking an Arctic Front
Winter Storm Warning
Recent Changes to Forecast
>A Winter Storm Warning has just been issued for the plateau for tonight. This is for snow and blowing snow that could cause very dangerous conditions. Any snow that falls could easily drift.
>A wind advisory will likely be issued for Thursday night for winds that could gust to 40 mph with the frontal passage and for a few hours thereafter. Winds will still be gusty to 30 mph Friday.
>Be advised that snow could come down in heavy bursts immediately after the frontal passage, then taper off to flurries thereafter.
>Dense fog will likely move in with the front, reducing visibilities to near zero. Fog should clear within an hour or so of the frontal passage. Fog will likely freeze on impact to bridges and overpasses.
>Wind chill values could bottom out at -25, which only takes 15 minutes or less to cause frostbite.
What Has Not Changed
>The timing of the front is now a narrower, two-hour timeframe of 8:00 pm to 10:00 pm. Travel is not advised tonight and I encourage everyone to be off the roads by 8:00 pm, if at all possible.
>I’ll be tracking the front all evening on where exactly that front is.
>The passage of the arctic front will bring rapid and dramatic weather changes, with temps plunging and snow rapidly accumulating. This will create hazardous roadways in a very short period of time.
>Snow forecast confidence in 1″ or less remains very high, with the possibility of locally higher amounts to 3″. Favored areas for more snow will likely be along the western edge of the plateau.
>The temperature for much of Friday will be in the single digits, with gusty north winds.
>Dangerous, life-threatening temperatures are expected Thursday night through Saturday morning.
>I’m advising everyone be off the roads by 8:00 pm this evening. Travel is not advised for the remainder of the night.
LOCAL WEATHER
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Short-Term Forecast
Rain likely this evening. Temps falling dramatically with the passage of the front. Wintry mix to snow develops after frontal passage. Hazardous travel is possible. Winds increase overnight, with gusts to 40+ mph possible with and shortly after the arctic frontal passage. Total snowfall accumulation of around one inch, with locally higher amounts to 3 inches being possible. Any water on the roadways from previous rainfall will freeze immediately after the frontal passage. Total rainfall amounts of 1/4-1/2 inch should be common across the plateau.
Snow Forecast
Please stay tuned to updates to this timing. Confidence is now high for this chart to be accurate.
Timing
HRRR Short-Term Model
This updated model runs begins at 7:00 pm and ends at midnight, in one-hour increments. While the HRRR is a great guide, it’s not perfect. Please allow about an hour or two of flexibility around these times.
Weather statistics are available each day at https://meteorologistmark.com/weather-statistics/
Power Outage Risk
The risk for power outages is low, but not zero. A stressed power grid (with so many people running heat full blast) and gusty winds will cause there to be a threat for sporadic power outages. VEC is very well prepared for this and any outage that does occur will get an immediate response.
To keep up with power outages across the state, you can access the link https://poweroutage.us/area/state/tennessee PLEASE note that you must manually refresh that page for updates. In other words, it doesn’t automatically update unless you make it.
Warming Shelters
Per Cumberland County EMA, a warming shelter will be opened at the Community Complex if the need arises. Another option will be at the Pleasant Hill Town Hall. Again, these will only be opened if the need arises due to power outages.
Road Conditions
To keep up with road conditions, you can go to https://smartway.tn.gov/traffic?features=incident,traffic and get the latest! It will be interesting to see how road conditions change as the front crosses the state Thursday night.
Remember, if you ever get stranded in your vehicle in wintry weather….stay with the vehicle!
Cold Weather Prep
Clean out cars and storage buildings of items that will freeze with sub-zero temps.
Make sure outdoor animals are able to get out of the wind and be dry.
Close vents under the house if house is not insulated around the blocks.
Adequately cover outdoor facets
Make sure neigbors, especially the elderly and disabled, are prepared.
Have more than one heat source, espeically if you rely on electric heat.
Other important weather information will be shared when needed. This includes additional severe weather information, forecast discussion, model data, drought info, hurricane info, and more. Some of these can be found as tabs to this page at any time.
Disclaimer: This website/app should never be considered your primary source of severe weather warnings.
