I’ll have another special update later this evening.
For this update, things are looking worse for snow lovers. While there certainly is still a chance for snow late tonight, the chance for accumulating snowfall is decreasing. This morning I had the following stats:
This morning v/s Now
50% chance of some light accumulation………….Now, 40% chance of some light accumulation
20% chance of significant accumulation………….Now, 10% chance of significant accumulation
30% chance of no accumulation……………………..Now, 50% chance of no accumulation
The latest data suggests the heaviest precip may stay south of I-40 and maybe even south of Cumberland County. If you want snow, we need that heavier precip to come our way in the morning. If we only get light rain, the air throughout the atmosphere won’t cool enough (dynamic cooling) to give us snow that can accumulate. Remember, this system is pulling cold air down from the atmosphere to give us snow, not pulling it in from the north like snow systems normally do (which makes forecasting these types of systems a bigger challenge!).
I should add that there is uncertainty with the forecast, and we should still be prepared for Sunday morning snow, just in case. The critical part of the puzzle continues to be with surface temps staying above freezing. IF surface temps can get to 32 degrees, the wet snowflakes would be able to accumulate on elevated and grassy surfaces.
The greatest risk for snow continues to be in the 5:00 – 9:00 Sunday morning timeframe.
Stay tuned! If you’re a snow lover just hope and pray that this evening’s data looks more promising! As of now, we’re trending more toward cold rain.
