For the possibility of snow mainly after midnight
Weather Hazards
Tonight and Sunday morning’s snow accumulation potential will depend on whether or not we are able to drop to 32 degrees.
Current Advisories
Winter storm warnings are now in effect for tonight and Sunday for the TN/NC mountains.
Five-Day Outlook
MM’s Wx Vlog
Weather Summary
Clouds will increase as we go through the day and winds will likely gradually increase, as well. By this evening, shower chances will start to increase.
Much of the precip tonight will likely be mostly rain. As temps fall to near freezing Sunday morning, precip will increase in intensity and further mix with or change to wet snow. Where temps fall to 32 degrees, snow will accumulate, mainly on elevated surfaces and grassy areas. If snow comes down hard enough, roads could become hazardous (regardless of surface temps). The best chance for snow looks to be between 5:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m.
Temps warm above freezing on Sunday, leading to improving conditions.
Mild air awaits us next week but that will lead to severe storm chances for Thursday. Stay tuned.
Radar Model
This model runs from 3:00 pm today to 3:00 pm Sunday in one-hour increments. Notice the trend of rain overspreading the area with time. The best chance for snow is Sunday morning from around 5:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. That is when the heaviest precip is expected to arrive and that could cause enough cooling to lead to mostly snow in that timeframe. If that changeover occurs, snow could fall heavily at times. If surface temps can drop to 32 degrees, that snow will be able to accumulate.
Snow Potential
If the track of the low changes, this forecast will change. If the low tracks closer to us, or strengthens more than expected, we could see higher snowfall totals.
Chances for snow tonight and Sunday morning:
50% chance of some light accumulation
20% chance of significant accumulation
30% chance of no accumulation
Chance for Monday Snow Day
Factors to consider include: 1) Will snow be able to accumulate Sunday morning and 2) Will afternoon temps on Sunday melt any snow that we have? If we get snow, refreezing on area roads would be a factor Monday morning. A lot of “ifs” but you all still have some hope! 🙂
Hourly Temp & Precip Forecast
Surface temps will be critical for snow accumulation (similar to our ice scare we had recently).
Hourly Wind Forecast
FYI
The Storm Prediction Center is already highlighting our area for a severe storm risk on Thursday. I’ll monitor very closely.
Weather Statistics
On This Day
1899 – Perhaps the greatest of all arctic outbreaks commenced on this date. The temperature plunged to 61 degrees below zero in Montana. At the same time a “Great Eastern Blizzard” left a blanket of snow from Georgia to New Hampshire. The state of Virginia took the brunt of the storm, with snowfall totals averaging 30 to 40 inches.
1987 – Denver, Colorado, reported only their third occurrence of record of a thunderstorm in February.
2004 – North Dakota Governor John Hoeven declares a snow emergency as winds gusting over 70 mph along with heavy snow produces low visibilities and drifts up to 20 feet in northwestern North Dakota. Amtrak train service is interrupted in the region.
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