Tornado watches now extend into West TN. Storms along the Missouri/Arkansas border have continued to intensify and develop eastward. One of the leading storms is showing signs of evolving into a more linear complex of storms that many of us refer to as a squall line. Radar shows more and more bursts of heavy wind rushing out ahead of that storm, which is often a sign that a squall line is beginning to take shape.
Some of the latest data suggest the bulk of this severe activity may stay southwest of the plateau. That’s not for certain, but it’s certainly possible.
The map below shows the tornado watches in yellow.
The latest update from the Storm Prediction Center keeps us in the slight risk for overnight severe storms. Damaging straight-line winds are the main threat but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A line will develop with time and charge east and southeast.
The main threat timeframe now looks to be in the 3:00-5:00 a.m. timeframe.
The front that came through here Monday is currently lifting north as a warm front. If we can stay north of that front, our storms will struggle to be severe. If we get south of the front, our storms will be more intense. That front hasn’t lifted as far north as expected, so it will be interesting to see if it moves more northward over the next several hours.
As with any severe weather forecast, things could always go in our favor and miss us. However, the threat is such that if you go to bed you need to make sure you have multiple ways to get warnings. And make sure you and your family know where your safe place is and can get there easily in the dark.
Our storms look impressive on satellite, blowing up right along the Arkansas/Missouri border. Lightning activity with these storms has been impressive, as well.
Special updates will come through the night, as needed.
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