Issued Sunday, December 31, 2023
The last sunset of the year was a pretty one.
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An Active Winter Pattern Emerges
High temps on Sunday reached into the low 50s. Although it was windy, it was the warmest day for at least the next seven days.
Clouds will thicken up tonight with a disturbance that is trailing a cold front. That could squeeze out a few flurries overnight and into the morning. While you won’t notice any impacts from snow flurries, you will notice the impact of falling temps! Monday will be noticeably colder than Sunday.
By the middle of the week, a weak Gulf low will develop and move along the northern Gulf Coast. This system is weak and several hundred miles to our south. Both of those factors will mean that moisture will be limited in our area from this storm system. Still, there is reason to believe that we may see some isolated showers on Wednesday and some isolated snow showers Wednesday night. This system is unlikely to have adverse impacts on our area. As always, I’ll keep an eye on that snow shower potential.
By the end of the week, a more powerful Gulf storm system is expected to develop and move our way. This system could bring rain, snow, or a variety of both to our region, depending on the track and the availability of cold air. I’ll keep a very close eye on this sytem and keep you updated as we go through the week.
Pictured below is the current forecast tracks of the Wednesday night system and the weekend system. Incidentally, a track between those two tracks shown is typically our favored storm track for accumulating snow. If the weekend storm tracks farther north, we’ll get plain rain. If it tracks farther south, we could get a variety of wintry precip or even accumulating snow. As more data comes in the next couple of days, a better understanding of this storm system will evolve. Stay tuned.
Two times to watch will be Wednesday night (low to no impact) and Friday night (higher impacts possible).
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This Week’s Jetstream Forecast
The jetstream is a “river of wind” found at about 30,000 feet. The brighter reds and whites represent the fastest winds. There are two main jetstreams to watch this time of year. There’s the polar jet to the north and the subtropical jet to the south.
An active jetstream is expected as we go through the week and could spin up a strong Gulf storm system by the coming weekend. I’ll keep an eye on it!
Drought Monitor
The Drought Monitor is updated each Thursday. Drought conditions will worsen across the state in this week’s update. We are now more than 7 inches below normal and we will likely approach the 8 inch mark within the next week.
