Issued Tuesday evening, January 27, 2026

Flurries and Snow Shower Chances for This Week

Good evening, everyone! First of all, we have a front coming through tonight that could kick off some snow flurries. Don’t be surprised if you see a few of those on your windshield in the morning. Also, I’ve noticed humidity values ticking up. Be aware that if there’s fog in the morning, it may freeze on surfaces and cause slick spots.

The rest of the week looks dry until we get to Friday. An arctic front may combine with an upper level low to bring us some snow showers and snow flurries. It’s too soon to talk about any possible amounts, but I’ve seen us get an inch or two from these scenarios in the past. I’ll keep an eye on that and see how that all evolves over the next few days.

A surface low is expected to spin up off the Carolina Coast and those lows can give the Carolinas big snows. That snowfall can reach westward to the Smokies. By the time the moisture crosses the mountains, there’s just not much left, so we don’t typically get big snows from that direction. If you have travel plans east of Knoxville this weekend, you’ll want to pay very close attention to the weather forecast.

As that surface low spins up, an upper level low will develp to our west and move toward the surface low (typical cyclone development). IF that upper level low spins over the top of us as guidance strongly suggest, that’s when we would have indirect impacts from the East Coast low in the form of snow showers from the upper level low moving toward it. I hope that makes sense! ha

Remember, the atmosphere is layered like a cake. We experience what goes on here at the surface but there are many more layers as you ascend upward into the atmosphere. At the 500 mb level (roughly 18,000 feet up), we pay close attention to the pressure to see if it is low enough to create clouds and precip. That’s what I’ll be keeping a close eye on it as that low approaches our region Friday.

We have a saying in meteorology, “An upper level low is a weatherman’s woe.” lol They can be challenging to forecast because there’s not much data available from the upper levels of the atmosphere. Still, guidance seems to have a good handle on this storm system for this many days out. We’ll see how it evolves in the coming days.

The BIG story this weekend will be the cold air and breezy winds that come with it. Next week looks to be warmer.

The map below shows the upper-level low spinning right over the top of us. This increases our chances for snow showers if this track verifies.

Guidance also suggest the upper level low will be very cold at its core, which increases instability and increases our chances for show showers.

We’ll be tracking a low-end risk for impactful snow showers for Friday into Saturday, while being aware of the dangerously cold temps that are coming.

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