I am continuing to monitor Isaias and the potential impacts to the plateau this weekend. More data is coming in by the hour, especially as recon missions have increased. You may watch the YouTube update below or simply scroll down for the graphics. Thank you!
The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center tells us that Tropical Storm Isaias has winds of 65 mph and is gaining strength. The storm will become a hurricane overnight (maybe even by the 10:00 pm advisory coming this evening). The storm should rapidly intensify in hot water and favorable atmospheric conditions. The storm is expected to make landfall on Friday as a strong cat 2, possibly low-end cat 3.
The hurricane will expand into a very large storm by the time it makes landfall, with impacts felt all across the Florida Panhandle, far from where the center makes landfall. Right now that center is expected to aim for the Mobile, Alabama area but may trend closer to Destin in future forecasts. Again, impacts will be felt far from that center.
The image below shows the storm’s current satellite presentation. I circled it so that you can find it easier. There have been big bursts of thunderstorms this evening around the center.
States of emergencies have already been issued for much of the Florida Panhandle. There are issued before hurricanes hit so that state and federal resources are ready to go as soon as they are needed. If you have travel plans to any of these counties, I strongly advise you check with the local emergency management agencies to make sure your plans don’t need to be adjusted.
The current forecast has the storm tracking just west of the plateau on Saturday afternoon and night. This places us in a favored region for the gustiest winds, heaviest rainfall, and the risk for isolated tornadoes. If this path shifts to the east and we end up west of the line, our impacts would lessen significantly.
Due to the phyisics involved with hurricanes, tornadoes often only occur in the right front quadrant. This is one reason why we track that center so closely. If you can stay out of that quadrant, you stay out of the tornado threat. That quadrant is also where the heaviest rainfall and the gustiest winds occur. This is why I am paying so much attention to the track of that center has it nears the plateau.
Earlier, the track was aimed at the Mississippi/Alabama border. Guidance has slowly shifted eastward and now has landfall more on the Alabama/Florida line. Further adjustments are possible with this track forecast.
These are the impacts I’m currently expecting on the plateau. I have adjusted the main threat timeframe again for this update. As more info becomes available, I may be making more adjustments to this graphic. Please stay tuned.
With the track adjustments that have been made today, it now looks like Sunday will be cloudy and showery and breezy.
As always, I’ll be monitoring this all very closely and I’ll issue special updates, as needed. Thank you for trusting me with your weather forecast!
