Meteorologist Mark

Will it rain today? Yes. Will it rain on our Trade-A-Plane picnic? Probably not. I wish I could be more specific but it’s impossible with this scenario. I just looked at this morning’s model runs and they suggest about a 40% coverage of t-storms this afternoon. The interesting part is that the more reliable model moves nearly all the activity out of here by 5:00 p.m., which would be perfect!

I do think that we’ll see a lot of these clouds sticking around, but I’d much rather have the shade of cloud cover than that hot June sun beating down on us all evening. We’ll just have to keep an eye on things.

Tonight, showers and storms may sneak up here from the south. We’re actually sandwiched in between a very active pattern for the Gulf Coast, and a very active pattern stretching form Oklahoma to Chicago.  Friday and Saturday both will feature showers and t-storms, but they won’t hit everyone and they’ll be mostly in the afternoon and evenings. On Saturday, the ingredients for strong storms are a bit more present, so we’ll have to watch those storms. If I had outdoor plans this weekend I’d either plan them for Sunday, when storms are more isolated, or I’d plan things in the morning. Otherwise, you better have a back-up plan for rain, just in case!

For Monday and Tuesday it looks like more isolated showers and storms, mainly in the afternoon and evening, and very typical of summertime weather. But, I’ll keep you posted and let you know if anything changes with that.

Check out this tornado yesterday evening in Iowa! Now that’s a picture, folks! More severe wx is expected today for Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois.

Our company, Trade-A-Plane, has a picnic every year. This year that picnic is Thursday. Today would have been the perfect day for our picnic. Friday would have been a bad day for our picnic. Thursday? Well, we’re right between perfect and bad (ha). I think we’ll be alright. There is a chance for a storm, so we have to keep that in mind. The models (pictured below) suggest isolated showers and storms at 5:00pm Thursday, which is pretty typical summer weather. Notice the bulk of the activity is to our south.

There’s absolutely no chance of a storm today, though. We’ll see beautiful sunshine and highs near 80. The low humidity will make it feel even better. On Thursday, the humidity starts increasing but it won’t be oppressive. That increase in humidity will produce a storm or two on the plateau during the afternoon and/or evening. On Friday, the humidity really increases and that will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening. On Saturday, a front approaches and that will increase showers and t-storms even more. All in all, Friday and Saturday do not look to be total washouts, but you do need to keep an eye on your radar for both days if you have outdoor plans. On Sunday, we return to more isolated storm chances.

At least today is not ANYTHING like this day in 1928. On that day, Middle TN had a tornado outbreak, which is a bit late in the year for such activity. Five tornadoes touched down across the area. All were rated F-2. One person was killed near Nashville, but 38 people were hurt across the region.

Get out and enjoy this beautiful weather, we all know it isn’t going to stay like this all summer….

We’ll have a shower or two to dodge this morning, as expected, but things should stay dry for most of us. Much like yesterday, the clouds will stick around for the day but we’ll definitely see some sun too.  Yesterday the clouds made the sky so beautiful and they’re not disappointing this morning either! Highs today will climb to the middle 70s. We’ll have another cool night tonight, with clears skies and lows dropping into the lower 50s. Mostly sunny skies return for Wednesday and that will allow high temps to climb to near 80 degrees. Humidity will start to increase on Wednesday and that will keep Wednesday’s overnight lows about ten degrees warmer than they will be tonight. That humidity begins to be noticed on Thursday, as highs climb to the lower 80s. We’ll also see an increase in afternoon and evening t-storms on Thursday, though they will be very isolated.

T-storms will be a bit more numerous on Friday, Saturday and Sunday as a front drops closer. I’ll have more details on that tomorrow. Just know that storms may affect your weekend outdoor plans. Right now, Saturday looks to be the wettest day but don’t hang your hat on that forecast just yet.

This morning we noticed a strong tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa. It’s still a bit early for development over that part of the Atlantic but we saw Tropical Storm Bret just last week that developed in this area. There’s no chance of it becoming a tropical storm in the next couple of days, but that chance increases when we run the models out to 5 days. I’ll keep an eye on it!

These morning patchy clouds are going to stick around for much of the day, though they will make for some pretty skies. I snapped this pic of the beautiful sky this morning as I was walking my dog, Pepper.

We may see a sprinkle or quick shower from these, but definitely nothing significant, if anything at all. Tonight, a disturbance rolls through and we could certainly see a shower or two from that disturbance toward Tuesday morning. Again, just light showers, if anything. Tuesday should be very similar to today. Highs both today and Tuesday will be in the lower 70s, which is quite pleasant for this time of year! By Wednesday, we should have clearer skies and that will allow us to warm to near 80.

Thursday will feature much of the same, though we will see a slight chance of a t-storm by then. That slight chance of a storm comes from our humidity that will be increasing on Thursday. We all knew it would be coming back, right? 🙂

Just be glad this isn’t 1988. On June 26, 1988 thirteen cities in the South recorded record high temperatures.  I still remember dad cutting trees in our yard the next year that had died from the 1988 drought. We lost at least a third of our trees and nearly every spruce and white pine. That’s one summer we don’t want to repeat! So, enjoy this cool weather. Heaven knows it could be so much worse!