Month: July 2019

Weather Headlines

–Strong/briefly severe storms are possible today, with damaging wind gusts the main threat

–Less humid weather for Friday!

–Watching for the effects of Barry on the weekend and early work-week forecast

Main threats

TODAY: Strong to briefly severe storms are possible. Damaging, straight-line winds will be the primary threat. Torrential downpours are also possible with any storm.

Summary

Today’s weather focus will be on the cold front moving into our region. The front is already setting off some showers and storms across Middle TN this morning. Those will be with us throughout the day. If skies can stay cloudy all day our chances for strong storms will be lower. If that sun pops out we’ll have a higher chance for some rough storms. Thankfully, the tornado threat is extremely low. The main threat is a damaging wind gust from a storm or two. The Storm Prediction Center has our area in the marginal risk for severe storms. Also, with this soupy airmass in place, any storm that develops will be capable of producing torrential rainfall.

After the front moves through this evening, we should be in for a pretty nice day Friday. Some models bring back some showers, but I think the bulk of our area will be dry. The best chance for showers will be south of I-40, and that’s only about a 20-30% chance.

The forecast gets complicated for the weekend and into next week, due to the possible influences of Barry. The storm is expected to make landfall in Louisiana on Saturday. Where it goes from there is the subject of much debate. Some models keep it far enough west of us to keep us mostly dry, while other models swing it closer to West TN, which would give us some pretty good coverage of showers and storms. I’ll be watching it!

WeatherTAP WeatherFACT

The peak of hurricane season occurs on September 10. Tropical storms and hurricanes are most common in the month prior to and after that date.

Records

Whew! It was a hot July day in Tennessee on this day in 1901. The city of Nashville hit 102 degrees, while several weather stations out in the countryside recorded 107.

It was a very cold July day in 1888 for the folks in New England. In fact, heavy snow almost reached the base of Mount Washington! The elevation of the base is 2,700 feet. That’s not much different than the plateau’s elevation!

Almanac

Yesterday’s record high: 93 (1988)

Yesterday’s record low: 46 (1961)

Today’s record high: 93 (1980)

Today’s record low: 49 (1963)

Today’s sunset: 7:58

Tomorrow sunrise: 5:33

Today’s day length: 14 hrs 25 mins 33 secs

Tomorrow’s day length: 14 hrs 24 mins 33 secs

One year ago today

The high was a hot 87 degrees, while the low was a very warm 67. No rain fell.

News

All eyes are on the Gulf today, as we watch for the system that we’ve been tracking for days evolves into Tropical Storm Barry. The system is not yet named, as it is still below tropical storm strength. The winds are currently 30 mph. Winds of 39 mph are necessary for it to be labeled a tropical storm.

Barry is then forecast to strengthen into a category one hurricane, before making landfall on the Louisiana coast sometime Saturday. The worst news is that New Orleans is already flooding from rains well ahead of this system. To make matters worse, the Mississippi River is already at or above flood stage, due to flooding across the Midwest this spring.

There is concern that flood waters will breach the flood walls protecting New Orleans. Some of those walls dip to only 18 feet tall. The Mississippi River is expected to crest at 20 feet. If the flood walls experience spill over, it will be the first time in the city’s history that has happened. With Katrina, the walls collapsed in sections, before experiencing water spilling over the walls.

The flood walls were rebuilt/reinforced in many sections following Katrina, but that has now been 14 years ago. Reports are that little maintenance has been carried out on the walls since. Let’s just hope they hold.

You all have a great day!

 

I wanted to be sure and let you all know that an astronaut will be coming to Crossville on Sunday! If you have kids I think this could be a real treat. Here is more information for those of you who are interested. I, of course, will be there.

WHAT:  Spacewalking & What It Is Like Up There

Four Missions – NASA Shuttle Astronaut (Dr. Jay Apt) is presenting a slideshow of his photos and videos taken during his four missions.

Jay was involved in space walks, visited the Russian Mir Space Station, and conducted scientific experiments.

WHERE:   1200 seat auditorium of Stone Memorial HS at Cook Road in Crossville, TN

WHEN:  SUNDAY, July 14 at 3pm (Central Time).    Approximately 1 hour presentation including a Q&A with Dr. Apt.

ADMISSION:  Free admission………with a free-will offering to defray expenses to bring Dr. Apt here from Pittsburgh, Pa.

DOOR PRIZES:  Six autographed copies of ORBIT which is Dr. Apt’s book compilation of photos taken in space, as well as a limited quantity of autographed copies of Jay’s NASA official photo.

Some of you may be wondering why I keep putting the name Barry in quotation marks. Or you may be wondering why media outlets refer to this system as “potential tropical cyclone.” That’s a very good question!

In recent years, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has felt the need to give coastal residents as much time as possible to prepare for tropical systems. Sometimes, those systems develop rapidly at the coastline, giving residents little time to prepare.

So, what if we see this development in the model data and go ahead and tell people that confidence is very high in the development of a tropical storm or hurricane? This would give residents even more time to prepare, rather than wait for the system to suddenly develop on their doorstep.

In the past, the NHC would neither track or discuss systems that hadn’t officially developed yet, even if model data and all available guidance suggested that development was imminent, even development close to the coast.

Now, that has all changed. Whenever confidence is high that something is going to develop (esp near the coast) the NHC begins issuing advisories for a “potential tropical cyclone”, just as they are doing today for the system that will become Barry. Already, the governor of Louisiana has issued a state of emergency. Preparations are now being made for devastating flooding that will come to that state. In the past, no advisories, etc would have been issued until the storm developed. This system will likely not develop until tomorrow, but plans are already being made that will keep people safe.

Time is a very precious thing when preparing for disaster. With the old ways, advisories wouldn’t have been issued until sometime tomorrow, or whenever the storm decides to form. With this new way, advisories and track forecasts are being made TODAY. Landfall is expected on Saturday.

Protecting life and property is at the heart of NOAA and it’s always nice to see them adopt new policies that go even further in making sure that goal is met!

Let’s keep all the residents of Louisiana close to our hearts.

The Mississippi River is forecast to crest at 20 feet near New Orleans on Saturday. The flood walls protecting the city are 20 feet high. Any additional water from Barry would be quite concerning, and this afternoon’s model data suggests landfall closer to New Orleans. It’s still still soon to have much confidence in that forecast though. Model error three days out can be as much as 100 miles off.

The National Hurricane Center is now issuing advisories for the system that will become Barry later today (more than likely). The system is now expected to become a cat 1 hurricane before making landfall in western Louisiana on Saturday. This will make Barry the first hurricane of the 2019 season.

The impacts of this system will be felt all along the right-hand side of the system. Anyone with travel plans to the Gulf Coast this week needs to pay attention to this system.

Unfortunately, New Orleans is expecting a very serious flooding situation to continue to evolve as this system moves closer. The streets of the Big Easy are already flooded, with a very dire situation potentially developing with Barry moving in.

Notice the track curves westward with this update. That would keep many of the impacts too far away from us to affect us much at all. This is something to keep an eye on, though.