Month: July 2019

Weather Headline

>Another hot, dry day for most of us

>A cold front will bring the risk for strong storms for Thursday and Thursday night

>Less humid conditions for Friday!

>Monitoring the development of “Barry” in the Gulf and his eventual track/impacts on       our area starting Saturday through early next week.

Main threats

THURSDAY: The Storm Prediction Center has placed the plateau in the marginal risk for severe storms for Thursday and Thursday night. Damaging, straight-line winds would be the main threat.

THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK: Monitoring “Barry” and whether or not he will affect our weather the first half of next week.

Summary

Most of us will stay dry today, though we certainly can’t rule out an isolated shower or storm across the plateau in the afternoon/evening hours. The better chance of rain arrives tomorrow with a cold front.

That cold front will bring the chance for widespread showers and storms, some of which could be strong or briefly severe. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some small hail is always possible. Always be aware of that lightning threat too.

The good news is that the cold front will bring less humid air into our region for Friday. It will still be hot, but the air will be less humid. That will be some welcome relief!

The forecast gets a bit complicated for the weekend. We’ll have to watch and see what “Barry” does. Right now, some of the models are keeping it well south of us but I wouldn’t be surprised to see our Thursday cold front come back as a warm front on Saturday, in response to the storm. That would certainly increase our storm chances.

Most guidance now suggest a landfall near New Orleans, followed by a northward movement of the storm. This would bring a very good chance for scattered showers and storms for Sunday and Monday. This is something to keep in mind.

As soon as Barry forms, the models will be able to do a much better job forecasting strength and direction of the storm. That may happen as early as today. I’ll keep you posted.

WeatherTAP WeatherFACT

Condensation is a warming process, because water releases heat when it condenses. There is a TON of condensation taking place within a tropical system. That warm air being released is what keeps these systems warm at their core. This warmth also prevents hail from forming. It’s a good thing, right? Can you imagine hailstones flying around in all that wind and rain?

Records

On the morning of July 10, 1961 we woke up to a morning low of 46 degrees! That is the coolest July reading ever recorded in Crossville.

While we remember our coolest July reading on this day, the folks in Death Valley remember their warmest. In fact, on this day in 1913 the hottest temperature ever recorded in North America was measured. By that afternoon, the mercury had soared to 134 degrees at Greenland Ranch, California, located in Death Valley.

Almanac

Yesterday’s record high: 98 (1988)

Yesterday’s record low: 53 (1961)

Today’s record high: 93 (1988)

Today’s record low: 46 (1961) All time record low for July for Crossville!

Today’s sunset: 7:58

Tomorrow sunrise: 5:32

Today’s day length: 14 hrs 26 mins 31 secs

Tomorrow’s day length: 14 hrs 25 mins 33 secs

One year ago today

The high was 85, after a morning low of 66. No rain fell.

News

There has been extensive flooding reported this morning in New Orleans from clusters of storms that keep dumping rain on the city. There has even been a possible tornado. This flooding is even more disturbing when looking at the latest model data, which wants to send Barry straight to New Orleans. This could be very rough ride for a city that struggles to pump flood waters out during events like this. Even if Barry just remains a tropical storm, the flooding impact is what will be huge. Keep in mind, wind didn’t make the levees fail in Katrina; the water did. To make matters even worse, the Mississippi River is already above flood stage, due to flooding across the Midwest.

Let’s be sure and keep that city close to our hearts this week. I have a feeling you’re going to be seeing them in the news…..a lot.

Weather Headlines

>Hot and mostly dry weather prevails for today and tomorrow.

>A “cold” front will bring an increase in showers and storms for Thursday.

>A return to generally hot and dry weather returns for Friday into the weekend.

>Watching for the development of “Barry” in the Gulf by this weekend.

Main threats

No widespread hazards are in sight, though any storm that develops Thursday could be strong. The Storm Prediction Center currently has the plateau in the marginal risk for severe storms for Thursday.

Summary

We’re going to see generally hot and dry conditions for today and tomorrow. We can’t rule out a very isolated afternoon shower or storm, but at least 80-90% of us will stay bone dry and hot.

On Thursday, a cold front begins dropping in from the north. Anytime we have a system like this drop in on us this time of year, with all this heat and humidity, we can easily expect showers and storms to be scattered about. Some of those storms could be on the strong side, but widespread severe weather is not expected.

That front will bring in a bit drier air for Friday and Saturday. Some of the models indicate that a storm or two could form on the plateau either of these days, but that chance is less than 20%, so I left it off the outlook above for now.

By Sunday, southerly flow returns at the surface and that will increase humidity values, especially south of I-40. That will allow for a couple of storms to generate during the heat of the afternoon. Again, most of us will stay dry.

Tropical Storm Barry is still expected to develop in the Gulf by this weekend. At this time, models keep that system far enough to our south to spare us any impact. I’ll keep an eye on it though, as all of that is still many days away.

Pictured below is the threat area for Barry, as outlined by the National Hurricane Center.

WeatherTAP WeatherFACT

While the inner eye of a hurricane is generally calm, the bands of storms immediately surrounding the eyewall contain the highest winds and heaviest rainfall. Never focus on the exact forecast track of the eye. The effects of the storm can be felt for hundreds of miles beyond that eye, on either side of the storm.

Records

On this day in 1987 a tornado struck Munising, Michigan. A commercial dog kennel was in the path of the storm and was completely destroyed. One dog was later found in a tree top one half mile away…..unharmed. I bet that dog was glad to see someone come to their rescue!

Almanac

Yesterday’s record high: 97 (1993)

Yesterday’s record low: 52 (1972)

Today’s record high: 98 (1988)

Today’s record low: 53 (1961)

Today’s sunset: 7:59

Tomorrow sunrise: 5:32

Today’s day length: 14 hrs 27 mins 28 secs

Tomorrow’s day length: 14 hrs 26 mins 31 secs

One year ago today

Highs were in the low 80s and lows were in the lower 60s. No rain fell.

News

I announced this on Facebook yesterday but I’ll let you all know too. A couple of months ago I applied to be a part of the Apollo 11 launch celebration at Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville. The offer was only open to fellow NASA Social alumni. I applied, of course, and yesterday I found out I was accepted!

I’ll be heading down there early next week for the celebration on Tuesday (July 16). As part of the festivities, they’ll be setting off 5,000 model rockets at the very moment Apollo 11 launched, 50 years ago. This will set a new Guinness Book of Work Records! (ha)

Afterwards, we get to tour facilities that they tell us many NASA employees have never seen. It should be a very interesting day. I’ve actually never been to Marshall, so that makes it even more exciting!

You all have a great day!

Weather Headlines: (new section!)

Tuesday will be our first dry day across the region in some time!

The best chance of rain this week will be Thursday with a cold front. That will be followed by less humid air for Friday.

That nice weather should continue into the weekend, but that all depends on what the tropical system in the Gulf does.

Main threats:

No significant/widespread threats in sight.

Summary

We’ll have to hold on to a slight chance for a shower or storm today, as a weak system pulls through. A great many of us will stay hot and dry, though. That dry weather continues into Tuesday.

By Wednesday, another cold front will begin moving through the Plains. This could increase our instability enough to generate an afternoon shower or storm. That is a slight chance, and it’s a chance that pales in comparison to our chances for storms on Thursday, when that front arrives.

While that front will offer the chance for storms, some of which may be strong, it will be followed by drier, less humid air. That’s always a welcome feeling in July! Temps will still be quite warm, but the air will feel better with the lower humidity values. What a great night for camping!

As of now, the weekend looks great. However, we will have to watch and see what the newly-developed system in the northern Gulf of Mexico will do because that could have impacts on our weather. Right now, it looks to stay far enough to our south to give us little, if any, influence, but that could change. At this time, confidence is very low in what that system will do.

WeatherTAP WeatherFACT

Relative to movement, the right-hand side of a tropical system is often the most dangerous side, with the highest storm surge, heaviest rainfall, strongest winds, and greatest chance for tornadoes.

Records

The summer of 1954 had already proved to be a hot one for Nashville. In fact, by this date they were already on their 31st consecutive day of hitting 90 degrees or better!

In great contrast to this, the summer of 1816 was proving to be a very chilly one for New England. It was so cool that on the morning of July 8th some isolated locations in that region reported frost!

Almanac

Yesterday’s record high: 96 (2012)

Yesterday’s record low: 48 (1972)

Today’s record high: 97 (1993)

Today’s record low: 52 (1972)

Today’s sunset: 7:59

Tomorrow sunrise: 5:31

Today’s day length: 14 hrs 28 mins 21 secs

Tomorrow’s day length: 14 hrs 27 mins 28 secs

One year ago today

It was a dry day, with a high of 82 and a low of 67 degrees.

News

All eyes are on the northern Gulf Coast this week. A disturbance in the Southeast is expected to drop into the Gulf by the middle to end of this week. The system will encounter favorable atmospheric conditions for development, as well as very warm Gulf temperatures. The end result should be the development of our second tropical storm of the 2019 season. That storm would be called Barry.

As of now, models are not handling the strength or movement of this system very well at all (that’s quite common with situations like this). The current thought is that it will just hang out along the coast through the weekend, possibly moving westward toward Texas. This would lead to very wet and windy conditions throughout the northern Gulf Coast from at least Thursday through the weekend. Anyone with travel plans to the northern Gulf Coast this week or next weekend should monitor this closely.

I’ll keep an eye on the storm threat for Thursday, as well as the development of Barry this week!

You all have a great day!

We should see some showers and storms today, with a disturbance helping kick those off. The rain chance is set at about 60%. Just keep in mind that any storm that develops could be strong.

I haven’t had much time to write lately, so I had to dig up an oldie for  you all today. As we approach the season of Fairs across the region, I thought I’d share a story I wrote about a hailstorm that wrecked havoc on the Cumberland County fair many years ago.

Incidentally, this is the first article I ever had published in the Fentress Courier, nearly two years ago. I can tell my style has changed since then, if only slightly (ha). I decided not to edit a single word.

A hail of a storm

When I saw a sign advertising the Fair, I recalled a conversation I recently had with a gentleman from Memphis. I was telling him about our big wind storm over the Memorial Day weekend and he was surprised. He didn’t think we ever had bad weather here! It didn’t take me long to convince him that we are certainly no strangers to rough weather on this plateau.

I will never forget a storm that we had when I was in the seventh grade. I was so excited for mom and dad to take me to the Fair in Crossville. We were all set to go when the phone started ringing.  It was my uncle. Crossville had been hit by a terrible hailstorm.

It was August 29, 1990 and it was the worst hailstorm Crossville had ever seen. Hail the size of bricks busted out car windshields and store windows all over town. Every light bulb at the Fair was busted out.

Pine trees on Highway 62 near Monterey were stripped of their needles. Many of them never recovered.

The same system caused severe weather in Illinois the day before. In fact, the only F-5 tornado ever recorded in the US for the month of August was reported that day in Plainfield, Illinois, along with huge hail stones.

Interestingly, just a few years later a hailstorm struck Fort Worth, Texas during their Fair. Before the storm struck, the electricity went out, which trapped people on the Ferris wheel. They had to sit on that ride in wind-driven baseball-sized hail and wait for it to pass! Fortunately, the Crossville hailstorm hit during the afternoon when few people were at the Fair.

We are certainly no strangers to rough weather here. Still, I’ll take our weather woes over most everyone else’s any day. It’s a small price to pay for living in such a beautiful place.