Month: September 2019

Weather Headlines

–Summer-like pattern coming to the plateau

–Drought conditions to worsen in the coming days

–Best chance of rain in the 7-day outlook may not come until the end of next week

Main threats

No major threats in sight.

Summary

Summer-like weather has returned! If you don’t like it don’t despair. We all know cooler temperatures will come….someday.

We only have slight chances of rain each day. These will be the typical heat-of-the-day afternoon/evening storms. Most of us will stay dry each day. At least we have that isolated chance, though.

The best chance of rain may come at the end of next week, as a cold front “washes out” as it moves through. I wouldn’t be surprised if I have to take that rain chance away but let’s stay optimistic.

I’m tellin’ ya, I don’t see any appreciable, widespread moisture in any of the extended models. We are in dry times, folks, and I fear this may be a long ride. That will not bode well for the fall fire season.

The latest outlook from the drought monitor has me most concerned. Although I have little faith in outlooks that go this far out, it is concerning that most long-range outlooks show us staying dry, with drought conditions persisting through the end of the year for our region. Let’s hope this doesn’t verify. If only we could get a tropical system up our way. That would change everything.

Incidentally, if we get to 86 degrees or better on Tuesday, we will break our all-time record high for October for Crossville. That looks to be easily within reach.

Almanac

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Records

The remnants of Isidore moved into our area on this day in 2002. The storm set single-day rainfall records for many areas across Middle Tennessee. The map below shows the path of Isidore and the rainfall she produced. Notice the plateau picked up about an inch or so of rain.

Sure would be nice to have a tropical system to bring us some rain now!

Tropics

The tropics have gotten a bit calmer. Tropical Storm Karen has been the foremost concern but she’s looking pitiful. She has a lot of obstacles to overcome and I’m not sure she’ll survive. Still, we have to keep an eye on everything this time of year.

The big news story in the Atlantic is Hurricane Lorenzo. That is a very powerful hurricane but it is far out at sea and will stay there. We can all be thankful for that! He’s very easy to spot on satellite in the eastern Atlantic. Lorenzo is more than 500 miles wide! Can you imagine? That width includes tropical storm and hurricane-force winds. That’s like a storm that extends from Crossville to Detroit, MI!

Today’s WeatherTAP WeatherWORD

Drought

A period of abnormally low rainfall, leading to a shortage of water. According to NOAA, drought is not only caused by lack of precipitation and high temperatures, but by overuse and overpopulation as well.

Drought is not easily defined and there are over 150 published definitions of drought.

WeatherTAP WeatherFACT

The second most damaging weather event is drought. Hurricanes are number one. Interesting that the two top most damaging weather events deal with water in its most extreme forms of abundance or lack thereof.

NASA Knowledge

Time is running out to have your name sent to Mars! The Mars 2020 Rover is heading to Mars and it could have your name on it. Just follow this link and fill out the info and your name will be on it’s way! The deadline is September 30 (Monday).

And yes, I sent Meteorologist Mark on it’s way! 🙂

News

The Northern Lights are due to be exceptionally active this weekend. Folks as far south as Iowa may get to see them! Pale green is the most common color for these lights, though various shades of other colors have certainly been photographed. The show is expected to begin Friday after sunset.

I always look for these when these geomagnetic storms are forecast. I remember one time, many years ago, the storm was much greater than anticipated and we could just barely see them from Crossville! That is rare, for sure, but it can happen. If I ever see them you’ll know it! I’ll be blowing up Facebook and this blog like crazy! haha

Nashville is still on track for the driest September on record, as there’s no appreciable rain in the forecast for the rest of the month. The current record set in 1903 is 0.13″ and they’ve seen 0.02″ so far in September 2019.

For those of you with kids enrolled in the rocket class, keep in mind that’s next week! The 11-13 year olds are Thursday and the 8-10 year olds is Friday. Let me know if you can’t make it. I look forward to it and I have some really cool things planned! Let me know if you wanted in but couldn’t get in. Just email me at Mark@weathertap.com.

You all have a great day!

We have some showers on radar this afternoon. If they’ll just hold together, some of us may get a shower or two this afternoon and evening. Honestly, these showers are pretty pitiful but they’re better than nothing. They just pulse up from time to time and nearly fall apart at other times. I’m yet to see any lightning with any of this activity, though that can always change pretty quickly.  Just keep your fingers crossed that we can get something from this. The Huntsville radar is just showing humidity in the air and not precip (it’s the setting they have it on right now).

The big news in the tropics this afternoon is Hurricane Lorenzo reaching cat 4 strength. He’s way out in the Atlantic and no threat to land anytime soon. Interestingly enough, the National Hurricane Center released this statement, “While its exact ranking will be determined later, Lorenzo is one of the largest and most powerful hurricanes of record for the central tropical Atlantic, with the only comparable hurricane in recent times near there being Gabrielle of 1989.”

You all have a good afternoon!

Weather Headlines

–Most of TN is now officially in drought conditions (see “News” section)

–Today’s shower chances will be followed by a very summer-like pattern

–Record heat possible this weekend

–Watching the tropics

Main threats

No significant threats in sight.

Summary

After our chance of showers today, we’ll enter a very summer-like pattern. With all the heat and humidity around, I had to add at least a 20% chance for an afternoon/evening shower or storm for each day, much like what we would see in the summer. A great many of us will stay quite dry over the next week, but a few of you will get lucky enough to see one of these pop-up storms.

Almanac

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Records

Denver, Colorado was buried under 21.3 inches of snow on this day in 1936. A little over 19 inches of that fell in only 24 hours. The heavy, wet snow downed powerlines and snapped trees, causing seven million dollars in damages.

Tropics

Hurricane Lorenzo, located in the far eastern Atlantic, reached major hurricane status this morning. He is now a cat 3, with winds of 125 mph. He is expected to continue strengthening, and will likely reach cat 4 status today. Thankfully, Lorenzo is located far away from any landmass and is expected to stay far from any land for the duration of his hurricane life.

He sure looks nice on satellite!

We still have Tropical Storm Karen but she is really struggling. Some models show her dissipating, while other show her clinging to life. She is expected to make a pull toward the west, but there are a lot of questions for what that means to the US. She’s just one to watch over the coming days, but right now there are no big concerns for her.

Today’s WeatherTAP WeatherWORD

Blizzard

Blowing or falling snow in wind gusts that are at least 35 mph. Visibility is often reduced to less than one quarter of a mile for three hours or longer.

WeatherTAP WeatherFACT

Snow does not have to be falling for a blizzard to occur. In fact, it could be a sunny day! The only thing that makes a blizzard is snow that is blowing in the wind. Sometimes, the snow has already fallen before winds in increase. Those winds pick up that snow and carry it, making for poor visibility. This is often reported as a “ground blizzard.”

The image below is a good example! Notice the patches of blue sky, while snow blows like crazy along the ground. A blizzard, with no falling snow.

NASA Knowledge

A photo was shared on social media by Astronaut Christina Hammock Koch. The photo is of a manned rocket launch, Soyuz 61, as seen from the International Space Station (ISS). The rocket launched yesterday at 8:57 a.m. from Kazakhstan. The rocket actually carried Koch’s best friend and docked with the ISS at 2:45 p.m. After two hours, the door of the ISS swung open and the number of crew on-board increased to nine.

I saved the photo. I just think it’s about the coolest picture I have ever seen. I told that on Facebook and a follower suggested I take advantage of Walgreen’s one day free 8×10 sale. So, I used that coupon code and am now the proud owner of the pic in 8×10. This baby is going on the wall! What a pic….. geez..

News

The NWS is upgrading portions of the winter storm watch for western Montana to a winter storm warning. They had this to say, “Heavy snow expected. Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of mostly 15 to 36 inches on the plains, but
even higher amounts expected in the mountains. North to northeast winds of 15 to 30 mph could gust as high as 40 mph, causing dangerous wind chill temperatures of zero to 10 degrees above zero.”

This will be the first major storm for the US for this season and it is expected to be very significant (even for Montana!). The storm is expected to move in tomorrow night and affect those folks all through the weekend. So, if you get too hot around here, just catch a plane to western Montana. ha

In addition to the upcoming winter storm, the NWS issued this graphic for that area. Their weather is getting rough up there!

We should be thankful that we live in Tennessee, even if we now officially have drought conditions to deal with. The drought monitor updates every Thursday, and this morning they show a good bit of Tennessee in a drought (tan coloring). Only the northern end of the plateau is excluded in our area, though they are listed as “abnormally dry.” With no appreciable, widespread rain in sight, these drought conditions will likely worsen as we go through the coming weeks. Remember, a burn ban is in effect.

You all have a great day!

Weather Headlines

–A slight chance for a shower tonight and tomorrow morning

–Dry weather continues for us, with no appreciable moisture in sight

–A burn ban remains in effect

–Watching Tropical Storm Karen and any impact she may have on the US

Main threats

No significant threats in sight.

Summary

Our dry weather continues. Yes, we have a chance for a shower tonight and tomorrow morning, but that will do very little to nothing to alleviate this dry spell. It will be much like what we saw Monday.

Then, the heat gets cranking again this weekend. Do you miss summer? Well, it missed you too.

Almanac

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Records

The Fall severe weather season is upon us and that was very evident on this day in 1977. An F-0 tornado cut a 3-mile path across Cumberland County. The twister struck the Homestead and Dorton communities. No one was hurt.

According to official storm data from the National Weather Service, “This tornado traveled through the Dorton area, ripping trees from the ground and tearing away roofing and walls of several buildings. It touched down briefly in the Byrds Creek area, uprooting 75 large trees at the Rowell’s apple orchard and damaging a motel. After leaving the Rowell property, it crossed Highway 70 uprooting more trees and ripping sections of a roof and tearing the back side from one of the large stone cutting buildings… Although officially rated F0, the description of damage suggests an F1 rating is more appropriate.”

On the map below, the path of the tornado is outlined in red.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Jerry has morphed into what we call a post-tropical cyclone. That means he still has the winds of a tropical storm, but he lacks the technical definition of a tropical storm. Basically, the storm lacks any strong thunderstorm activity. Remember, I showed you all the satellite view of him a few days ago, showing the center of circulation separating from the strongest thunderstorm activity. That process has continued. If the center of Jerry came over your community right now the sky would be partly cloudy but you would have winds of 45 mph, with some higher gusts. The thunderstorms that were removed from the center don’t even exist anymore.

Still, it’s not a bad sight on satellite, right? Notice the tiny island of Bermuda just to Jerry’s east.

Tropical Storm Karen is the one we need to watch. There continue to be indications that the storm will turn westward. How far west she tracks will determine the impacts to the US.

Then, we have Hurricane Lorenzo. he is far out in the Atlantic and will remain so. So, while he will become a major hurricane, he is no worry to any landmass. He’s just one to watch on satellite, and he will likely make quite the appearance there!

Today’s WeatherTAP WeatherWORD

nimbus

A word added on to the name of a cloud if the cloud is producing precipitation. For instance, if a cumulus cloud begins producing precipitation it will then become a cumulonimbus cloud. If a stratus cloud begins producing precipitation it will become a nimbostratus.

WeatherTAP WeatherFACT

The National Weather Service has updated their cloud chart! It also includes explanations of fronts, etc. You can now download it at https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/downloads.

I highly encourage you teachers and parents to show this to your kids.

NASA Knowledge

It was announced yesterday that NASA plans to build a space-based telescope to identify and track near-Earth objects that could pose a potential threat to the planet. The telescope is expected to be launched into space by 2025 and will be able to detect 140-meter wide near-Earth asteroids with 65% accuracy. The telescope is expected to be operational by 2030. Let’s just hope we don’t need it within the next 11 years! (ha)

News

While there aren’t any big threats of severe weather across the US today, there is a threat for lots of snow! Yes, it’s true. Parts of western Montana are under a winter storm watch. The statement from the National Weather Service reads,

“Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of 18 to 36 inches, with locally higher amounts in the mountains. Record or near-record cold temperatures in the teens and 20s with wind chills zero to 15 above zero. North to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph….Extreme impacts possible, including to power infrastructure including power lines resulting in widespread power outages, agricultural interests; outdoor recreational interests including camping and hunting activities; and travel. Widespread significant tree damage is possible with heavy wet snow and strong winds impacting trees with foliage.”

They go on to say…

“This early-season winter storm and/or blizzard has the potential to set a new benchmark for snow accumulations, cold temperatures, and resulting impacts for
parts of the Northern Rockies and the Rocky Mountain Front. A similar storm in 1934 produced prolific amounts of snow in late September over north-central Montana. An extension and/or expansion of Winter Storm Watches are likely.”

Doesn’t that just make ya wish for snow? haha You may seriously envy them this weekend when we’re near 90 degrees!

Below is a map of the winter storm watch.

How much you wanna bet we go straight from summer to winter around here? Especially if our first big cold front is blowing in air that crosses snow-covered ground. Brrrr

In other news….

Yesterday was a great day for the 4th grade tours of downtown Crossville! My alma mater, North Cumberland, was the school getting the tour yesterday. And yes, we always stop by the mayor’s office. 🙂

You all have a great day!