Year: 2019

As expected. the severe t-storm has already weakened below severe limits and no longer poses a threat.

That is the nature with storms in this environment. If they do pulse up to severe limits, they do so quickly. This is why we are only in the marginal risk for severe weather.

I don’t see anything else on radar right now that would be a threat. That doesn’t mean another storm or two can’t pulse up and produce a damaging wind gusts, but that would be a very isolated incidence.

Winds are picking up as the front nears. Those winds could gust to 30 mph.

Below is a look at the current radar, showing some very heavy showers moving through the area.

As I mentioned in the last post, we are in the marginal risk for severe storms until midnight. One such storm is now moving into southern Overton County from Putnam County. The storm will stay south of Livingston. That storm is severe, with winds of up to 60 mph. It is moving northeast toward Jamestown. I’m not sure it will survive that long.

For now, you folks in rural southern Overton County need to be advised that damaging winds could be headed your way. You folks in Jamestown need to keep an eye on this storm, just in case it holds together long enough to make it there.

This is the only severe storm on radar at this time. We remain under no watches and none are planned.

As you can see, this storm is riding the warm front boundary, which is giving it just an extra boost to become stronger. This storm will not affect Cumberland County.

Heavy rain is now crossing the plateau. There are currently no severe t-storms in our area, though several counties to our west are under flood warnings. The Storm Prediction Center issued a tornado watch for parts of Alabama and they had considered extending that watch northward into southern Middle TN. They have now decided not to do that, as the storms have been weakening instead of strengthening this evening.

The severe threat remains very low. The chance for a tornado is extremely low and practically zero north of I-40. That is very good news.

Winds will begin picking up for the rest of the evening and could become quite gusty.

The current radar shows heavy rain moving across the plateau. I’ve heard a rumble of thunder or two. Notice that there is another round west of this round. It will be here a bit later. That last line you see in southern Middle TN is the one that has the best chance for producing a severe t-storm in southern Middle TN. You folks from Pikeville and points south need to monitor that line, just in case a storm or two goes severe as it moves toward you all.

Again, the threat for severe weather is very, very low and the chance for tornadoes is extremely low. Never the less, we all remain in the marginal risk for severe weather until midnight. No watches are in effect and none are planned by the Storm Prediction Center. This should be the last update for the evening.

The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight the plateau in a marginal risk for severe weather for this afternoon and evening. The main threat would be wind gusts to 50 mph and heavy rainfall. The tornado threat is extremely low on the plateau. The clouds and rain of today are keeping our atmosphere stable and that is really limiting severe storm potential. Still, a strong or even briefly severe storm can’t be ruled out.

The greater severe weather threat remains to our west and south. The yellow-shaded region in the map below is the slight risk area, updated at 2:00 pm. Kentucky is covered with flood watches. I left lightning strikes on for the image below. Notice how few and far between the strikes are. Also, that red-circled area is where the Storm Prediction Center is considering a watch. They are more unstable than we are, yet the chance of a watch is only at 40%, even for them.

Current radar shows some heavy downpours of rain across Middle TN. These will continue into the night. Total rainfall will range between 1-2 inches for the plateau with this event.

RECAP

Showers and t-storms will be with us through the afternoon and evening. The risk for severe weather is very low. Total rainfall for the plateau will range between 1-2 inches. Flooding issues are not a concern at this time.

Skies will clear out tomorrow, as a cooler, drier, and more seasonal airmass moves in.

You all have a great Sunday. If anything changes I’ll let you know.