Year: 2019

We’ll see cloudy skies today and widespread showers and storms. Some of the storms could be on the stronger side, with gusty winds to 50 mph and heavy rainfall. As with any thunderstorm, there is always the hazard of lightning to watch out for, too.

We’ll also experience a very breezy day, with winds picking up later this evening. A wind advisory may be issued by the National Weather Service. High wind watches are in effect for the Smoky Mountains, for wind gusts to 60 mph tonight.

The greater risk for severe weather is to our west. Portions of Middle and West TN are in the slight risk for severe weather (yellow-shaded area). That is risk level 2 out of 5. Here on the plateau, we are in the marginal risk, which is level 1 of 5 in the severe weather risk categories. In other words, we are in the lowest risk level.

So, don’t plan on any outdoor activities today. By the time all is said and done, we should all have 1-2 inches of rain in our rain buckets. The good news is that widespread severe weather is not expected for anyone, nor are there any major flooding concerns.

After this system clears out tonight, we’ll be left with much better weather and a return to seasonal temperatures. The next rain-maker arrives Thursday.

 

And now, for your Sunday Story!

 

Diamond Dust

This is the time of year when folks on the plateau really start looking out for snow. Some look for it with excitement, others look for it with dread. 

The basic ingredients necessary for snow include cold air and moisture. That part of the equation is pretty easy to understand. 

What you may not realize is that you don’t need clouds to get snow. One fact about Earth is that there is always water vapor in the air. It’s part of the reason life exists on this planet. That moisture content may get very low, such as in the dry desert heat, or it can be quite high, such as in the tropics. Regardless of location, there is always water vapor in the air. 

If temperatures get cold enough, that water vapor will crystallize and fall out of the air. You may have noticed this on bitter cold mornings. If you look across the landscape you can see the tiny flakes of snow falling, even with crystal clear skies. It looks like glitter falling through the air. Many people refer to this type of snow as “diamond dust.” 

In order to get diamond dust, temperatures have to be close to or below zero. 

Since the technical definition of snow is “atmospheric water vapor frozen into ice crystals” this form of snow counts as real snow, even in the absence of clouds.  

At most, you can get a dusting of snow from this type of snowfall, so it’s not an impactful snow. Still, it’s interesting to see precipitation fall from clear air. 

Diamond dust is commonly observed in arctic regions, where temperatures often fall well below zero. This type of snow also proves that it never gets too cold to snow. 

You all have a great Sunday!

 

The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight our area in the marginal risk for severe weather for Sunday. The marginal risk is the lowest of the five severe weather risk categories. Never the less, it is a reminder that any storm that develops could be on the strong side, if not briefly severe. Thankfully, the tornado threat is extremely low. Gusty winds and heavy downpours would be the main threats.

Tonight, our system is making its way across the southern plains. The atmosphere is more conducive for severe weather there than it will be over here. Therefore, they have tornado watches in effect until 10:00 pm. That’s the yellow-shaded counties you see out west. The red-shaded county in southwest Missouri is the only active tornado warning at this hour. The imagery below is compliments of weatherTAP’S RadarLab (with radar turned off for this particular imagery).

The green-shaded counties in the mountains of east TN are for high wind watches for Sunday night. Winds will get gusty here on the plateau, too, and we may have wind advisories issued for winds greater than 30 mph. The green-shaded counties in Kentucky are for flood watches. We’ll see plenty of rain here, too. I’d expect 1-2 inches across the plateau. That should be low enough rain amounts to prevent much flooding.

I turned on radar for the RadarLab imagery below. As you can see, the strongest storms are well to our west tonight. They will weaken as they move eastward.

RECAP

Expect a wet Sunday, with some thunderstorms thrown in. Timing is pretty much all day long. Some storms could be strong but widespread severe weather is not expected.

You all have a good evening! I’ll have your Sunday Story ready in the morning, as well as a forecast update!

Weather Headlines

–Rain develops tonight

–Rain and storms for our Sunday

–Seasonal temps returning next week

–No bitter cold air in sight

Main threats

Some storms on Sunday could be strong, with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Widespread severe weather is not expected. The Storm Prediction Center has now placed the entire plateau in the MARGINAL RISK for severe weather. This is the lowest risk level of the five severe weather categories.

Summary

We’ll see another day of mostly cloudy skies. There are some light rain showers isolated about the plateau this morning, but those are few and far between and very light.

The heavier rainfall will move in late tonight and early Sunday morning. That rain will be with us throughout the day Sunday. Expect rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches across the plateau by the time all is said and done with this system.

A few of the thunderstorms on Sunday could be on the strong side. At this time, severe weather is not expected. Some of the newest model data, however, does indicate that folks just east of the plateau may see more strong storms than we do on the plateau. If you’re traveling to Knoxville Sunday afternoon just keep that in mind. We could see a situation similar to 2005 that you’ll see in the Records section below. Again, widespread severe weather is not expected for any part of Tennessee.

Skies clear out on Monday and temps will return to seasonal levels. Our next system arrives either Wednesday night or Thursday. That system will also have the potential to produce 1-2 inches of rain to start our New Year rain bucket off with a watery start.

Almanac

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Records

A severe weather outbreak hit the Southeast on this day in 2005. The storms got fired up just east of the plateau. Severe weather reports were made from eastern Kentucky to Georgia, with Georgia being hardest hit by tornadoes. The map below is storm reports filed that day. Notice how many storms reports for wind and hail were made across East TN that day.

Saturday Weather Satire

NASA Knowledge

Back in October, Astronaut Christina Koch made history when she was part of the first all female duo to spacewalk outside the International Space Station (ISS). Today, she makes history again when she will break the record for the longest single spaceflight by a woman. As of today, she has spent 300 days in space!

Christina will surpass Peggy Whitson’s record today of 299 days spent in space. Christina will spend 328 days total on the ISS before returning home.

Congratulations, Christina! We wish you all the very best.

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

You all have a great Saturday!

 

Weather Headlines

–A wet and stormy Sunday coming

–A return to more seasonal temps coming next week

–Still no bitter cold air in sight

Main threats

Thunderstorms are expected on Sunday. A couple of these storms could be on the strong side, with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an are of MARGINAL RISK just to our southwest. At this time, this risk does not include the plateau.

Summary

We’ll see mostly cloudy skies across the plateau today. These clouds will hang around through Sunday. We should stay dry through Saturday evening.

By the early hours of Sunday morning, we should see rain develop across the plateau. That rain could become heavy at times on Sunday. We’ll also have thunderstorms mixed in. Some of those storms could be on the strong side, though widespread severe weather is not expected.

Skies clear out on Monday, as seasonal temperatures return.

Our next system should hold off until after the New Year.

Almanac

Baldwin’s 7-Day forecast

Records

It was warm across Middle Tennessee on this day in 1982. Nashville hit 75 degrees, while Crossville enjoyed a high of 67. Both were record highs.

It was warm on this day in 1988, too. In fact, it was warm enough for severe weather to happen in the Deep South. At least a dozen tornadoes swept across Mississippi. In Harperville, Mississippi thousands of chickens were killed when a tornado destroyed five chicken houses.

Friday Weather Funny

NASA Knowledge

They baked the cookies! And in true cool NASA style, they baked them for Santa. This is the first time Santa has ever found freshly baked cookies on the ISS. How very, very cool is that?

Wx Hazards Across the Nation

News

I got outside to take some sunrise pictures this morning. I hope you enjoy!

You all have a great day!