Storms are really firing off across southwest Middle Tennessee. It even has the attention of the Weather Channel. Those storms will track northeast across Middle Tennessee this evening. You can see those storms on the radar imagery below (circled). I also highlighted the border of Cumberland County, for reference. I just noticed that one of those storms is now tornado-warned.
Thus far, we’re not seeing much develop in the area of southern Middle Tennessee that we’re worried about. That could change. Our area of concern is that area of southern Middle TN just north of Huntsville, Alabama. Our main threat will likely come in the 9:00 – 11:00 pm timeframe. I like that the supercells that seem to be forming in northern Alabama are a bit south and they may not make it here before the line of storms pushes through. That would certainly work in our favor. A line of storms is often better than these isolated supercells.
We’ve been fortunate that we’ve not worried about isolated supercells this afternoon. That’s why I wanted you all to be weather aware this afternoon. One glance at the news right now and you’ll see why I worried about that. That IS what Alabama dealt with this afternoon. Thank goodness that stayed south of us. We had some rain and storms but the instability just didn’t quite catch up to that activity.
Now, we worry about the main batch of storms to come later on. The good news is that this should all be over with by midnight. Never the less, these storms will be after dark.
The latest weather balloon launch from Nashville shows an increasingly unstable atmosphere that is capable of supporting severe thunderstorms, including a tornado.
The environment across southwest Middle TN, where these storms are intensifying, is more unstable than ours. Let’s hope our atmosphere stays more stable.
The upper levels of the atmosphere are getting more active. Winds are increasing aloft and that will increase our damaging wind threat. We have a ton of wind shear and that is why I still cannot rule out a tornado.
As night settles in, we’ll watch our temps. If we can stay cooler, that will really help us out. If you see that temperature rising, that means the surface here is becoming warmer and more unstable.
The tornado watch for Middle TN will probably be extended eastward to us in time. Stay tuned for that.
One thing I should note is that during the night, the low level jet tends to increase. That’s a flow of air at about 5,000 feet that flows out of the south. It often increases ahead of storm systems and tonight is no exception. That means there will be more wind shear tonight than what we had today. That could help the storms remains intense. Let’s hope not.
The bottom line is, as the NWS Nashville said, we are in no way in the clear. I will give the ALL CLEAR when that time comes. Until then, be weather aware.
You all take care. I’ll update again at 9:00, OR as needed. Let’s hope we continue to deal with just plain rain and thunder.
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