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Tropical Storm Ida Forms

Hurricane reconnaissance aircraft have found that the depression in the Caribbean has now strengthened into a tropical storm. We now have Tropical Storm Ida to track in the coming days.

And it will be an interesting storm to track.

All guidance and models agrees on two things. They agree that a strengthening hurricane will be in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. They agree that the storm will make landfall on the northern Gulf Coast. These are two things we never like to see agree.

Tropical Storm Ida will transition to Hurricane Ida in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. By Sunday, the storm will be bearing down on the northern Gulf Coast. At this time, it looks like it will hit at or near New Orleans, but the hurricane center reminds us that forecasting landfall this far out could lead to landfall errors of up to 120 miles.

My thought is that the forecast will trend eastward with that landfall, but we’ll have to wait and see.

Interestingly, the anniversary of Katrina is Sunday. Hurricane Ida is expected to make landfall on Sunday.

Pictured below is the current forecast path of Ida. Keep in mind that this path will likely change over the next 24 hours. Locations to the right of the center are where the worst of the weather occurs.

cone graphic

I’ll keep a close eye on this storm. Depending on its track, we could see some heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and even isolated tornadoes from Ida by Tuesday. I’ll keep you posted on that.

Keep the folks of the Gulf Coast close to your hearts. The recent covid variant breakout will complicate sheltering. The rise in lumber prices will complicate boarding up, especially for folks who can’t afford plywood. Also, when hurricanes hit the coast, lumber and gas prices both often spike.

And let’s hope and pray this doesn’t bring more flooding rain to the Waverly area of Tennessee, which recently experienced that devastating flash flood.

Hopefully this storm won’t get too big, but I honestly see no reason why it shouldn’t. The Gulf is very warm and the atmosphere shows no signs of hindering a powerful storm. Ida is one to watch.

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