Good evening, everyone. We are now just an hour away from the 9:00 hour. If you recall, I’ve advertised that we should be weather-aware from 9:00 to midnight, with the midnight hour looking like the most likely time for the storms to either be moving through or approaching. It now looks like the line will be nearly off the plateau by that time. In other words, it looks like our area will be impacted by this line between 10:30 and midnight.
Keep in mind that winds from the south will continue to increase ahead of this line, possibly gusting to over 50 mph before the line even gets here. That could lead to sporadic power outages and the toppling of shallow-rooted trees.
The good news is that moisture has not increased much at all today. In other words, our air is still rather dry. Storms need warm AND humid air to thrive. We have the warm air, but we don’t have the moisture. That moisture will increase ahead of the line, especially with the gusty southerly winds, but I’m not sure it will ever increase enough to give us a good shot of severe storms. I did notice that surface moisture levels to our south are also low, which is very encouraging since that’s where our moisture would come from.
All in all, I’m feeling better about our weather for tonight. IF we could have gotten humid I would be much more concerned. With that being said, we still need to be weather aware.
The risk for tornadoes is still very low but the risk for straight-line winds remains elevated.
I’m not sure the Storm Prediction Center will issue a tornado watch for us. I’m not sure that will even be necessary. I could see them issuing a severe thunderstorm watch, though. They did issue a severe thunderstorm watch for portions of central Kentucky, after issuing a tornado watch for western Kentucky. They will likely do something similar in TN, with the current tornado watches out west, but then issue severe thunderstorms watches here. If that line weakens after moving through Nashville, they might not even issue a severe thunderstorm watch for our area.
Our line of storms is still west of Nashville and packing a punch. However, there are currently no tornado warnings in TN and there haven’t been for some time. The line of storms is in the most unstable atmosphere it will be in this evening, so it’s encouraging to see it not be as severe as it could be.
Again, I’m feeling better about this situation but we still can’t let our guard down. At the very least, we need to be leery of the strong southerly winds ahead of this line of storms.
This simulation begins with the line crossing the Nashville area and ends with it clearing the plateau. The line should be across the plateau by midnight or shortly thereafter. Notice how quickly the line is forecast to weaken when it impacts the plateau.
I’ll keep an eye on things and let you know if anything changes! Keep in mind that I have severe weather safety tips at https://meteorologistmark.com/severe-weather-safety/
You all take care!