Special Update Issued Tuesday, May 14, 2024

I’ll be monitoring things closely today! Although the risk is low, it certainly isn’t zero.

Radar sponsored by Creative Compassion (https://ccihomes.org/)

Summary

An upper-level low will spin over portions of the region today, bringing scattered showers and storms. There is a lot of cold air aloft in the atmosphere with this feature (common with upper-level lows), bringing a more unstable atmosphere by this afternoon and evening. Hopefully clouds will hang on and keep us cooler. However, if we get sunlight that will only warm us here at the surface and lead to even more instability.

The Storm Prediction Center has now increased the threat for our area for severe storms. We have now been upgraded from marginal risk (level 1 of 5) to slight risk (level 2 of 5). The greatest risk should come in the 3:00-9:00 pm timeframe.

Because the risk is still low, there may not be any watches issued. Therefore, don’t be too surprised if we only get a warning or two around the area without a watch in place. Be aware that any storm that organizes enough could tap into just enough spin in the atmosphere (with this upper level low) to produce a brief spin-up.

Threats

The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail, though an isolated brief spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out. This graphic is unchanged from my morning thinking.

Radar Model

This model beins at 3:00 pm and ends at 9:00 pm., moving in one-hour increments. As always, don’t focus on specific times, as storms can speed up and slow down.

Severe Weather Safety

Please visit https://meteorologistmark.com/severe-weather-safety/ for MM severe weather safety tips and reminders!

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