Issued Thursday at 9:00 p.m., January 22, 2026

The winter storm warning is for Saturday & Sunday

In this update, accumulations have been updated and timing of onset of wintry precip has been updated.

The impacts will be felt far and wide!

Winter Storm Warning

We will be at level 3 (perhaps higher) for Saturday and Saturday night for this winter storm.

Please keep in mind that my forecast is the whole Cumberland Plateau. Conditions will vary from one community to the next, but this is a good (in my opinion) forecast for the plateau as a whole.

For this update, I lowered the snow threat level. See additional graphics below.

Most of the wintry precip arrives later Saturday morning. Some of us may not see precip until noon. The cold morning air will take a while to moisten up.

For this update, I have lowered snowfall totals once again. I know, I know…believe me, I know.

With more and more indications of heavy sleet mixing in, it’s just not wise to forecast much snow. I’m probably still a bit high, but keep in mind this is for the entire event…from Saturday through Sunday night. The onset of precip will likely produce some light accumulations of snow, especially for those of you around Livingston to Jamestown to Byrdstown. An additional round of light snow could bring another inch or two on Sunday.

On a brighter note…during the transition from snow to freezing rain and from freezing rain to snow we can often get huge snowflakes. They can be beautiful to watch.

Those higher sleet rates may also keep icing down a bit. This part of the forecast is the part I’m most concerned about changing. If temps can’t warm up fast enough, higher ice totals would be possible. Remember, sleet only affects the ground and roads, as it bounces around in the from of little ice pellets. Freezing rain is what accumulates on trees and powerlines, in addition to the ground and roads. At this point, I think 1/4 – 1/2 inch is a reasonable forecast.

Some Meteorology Behind This System

I think it’s safe to say that this has proven to be one of the most complex winter storms to forecast that many of us have seen. Don’t get me wrong, they ALL have their challenges, but this one has been uncomfortably challening in many ways, especially with conveying the message to the public. All of us meteorologists have headaches and we can’t imagine how you all feel! lol

One of the confusing messages has been to use Interstate 40 as the line separating different precip types. The interstate dives south in Cumberland County, whereas it goes in a general straight line from west to east across Middle TN. If the interstate had stayed straight, Cumberland County would be south of it. Don’t get caught up on the language of north and south of I-40 (I’m guilty of this too but I am trying to get away from that).

Remember this graphic that I’ve used in the past? Here we are again, concerned with the warm air aloft that this system threatens to send over our area. These “warm noses” bring a variety of precip. Since they vary in thickness from one location to another, they can cause the weather from one community to the next to vary. Throw in the geography of the plateau and you have micoclimates of different weather going on that cause conditions to vary significantly over short distances.

Then, there’s the fact that sometimes the higher elevations, like the plateau, are high enough to be in the warm nose! In those situations, we’re warmer than other lower-elevation areas. Is your head hurting yet? lol

Trust me when I say there’s more…much more…for me to navigate over the next few days. The science of it all is fascinating, while the communication part is a nightmare.

The bottom line remains this….we’ve known for days that an impactful winter weather event is headed our way. Whether or not snow, sleet, or ice totals change again doesn’t change the fact that travel is liable to be impossible at times on the plateau during this event. Yes, it’s disappointing that we’re not getting as much snow as we thought we would (at least for us snow lovers) but we can’t ignore the fact that we could still have some very impactful weather in our neighborhoods by Saturday evening.

I’ll keep a very, very close eye on things and I appreciate your trust more than you know! You all stay warm and stay tuned! I’ll see ya in the morning with the latest!

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